Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2055601def8961bea2e6fc911538c64ee181e7ae944f67c78f395e39df43580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,042,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,722,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,042,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 604 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 8c | 103,154$7,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,855.74 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0afc…30b2backed Yes | 76c | 72,684$54,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,704.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 38cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce41…fa02backed No | 21c | 71,534$15,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,028.26 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 13c | 44,302$5,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,622.45 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 17c | 39,176$6,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,713.51 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 57c | 39,028$22,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,817.33 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed No | 4c | 32,201$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.43 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…9b2ebacked No | 44c | 22,976$10,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,196.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 41c | 21,965$9,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,096.59 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…1c2bbacked No | 2c | 21,941$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 64c | 18,829$11,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,859.91 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…aafbbacked No | 5c | 18,252$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 65c | 17,298$11,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,127.26 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…ff69backed No | 37c | 16,986$6,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,293.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e879backed No | 18c | 16,640$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,969.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…8d85backed No | 11c | 16,087$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 2c | 15,753$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.17 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 71c | 14,654$10,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,321.09 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b21…933cbacked No | 72c | 13,961$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 29c | 11,467$3,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,314.23 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed No | 2c | 10,964$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked No | 46c | 10,844$4,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,944.67 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 66c | 10,752$7,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,696.54 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0f…7b84backed No | 47c | 10,725$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…d913backed Yes | 50c | 10,533$5,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,287.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…1eecbacked No | 27c | 10,489$2,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,848.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…bae0backed No | 1c | 10,304$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.14 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 32c | 10,154$3,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 50c | 10,045$5,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,994.55 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed No | 1c | 10,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 64c | 9,610$6,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,457.84 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 3c | 9,600$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.69 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 65c | 9,474$6,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,330.66 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 49c | 9,437$4,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,597.51 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked No | 20c | 9,289$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.21 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5257…0709backed No | 0c | 8,825$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 15c | 8,665$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.35 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 73c | 8,064$5,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,894.7 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 38c | 7,922$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,040.16 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed No | 17c | 7,916$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed No | 44c | 7,915$3,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,513.95 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 28c | 7,886$2,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,243.26 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b54…cb72backed Yes | 72c | 7,835$5,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,174.61 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed No | 12c | 7,454$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…61b0backed No | 23c | 7,347$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 7,327$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.97 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e07…c01abacked No | 1c | 6,971$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 36c | 6,543$2,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368.81 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb318…48cbbacked No | 8c | 6,448$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 2c | 6,265$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.56 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 54c | 6,183$3,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,827.94 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 10c | 5,951$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.07 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa43c…563ebacked No | 3c | 5,855$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed No | 44c | 5,809$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,573.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 19c | 5,681$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.2 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5f…cbbfbacked No | 19c | 5,400$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…951abacked No | 20c | 5,398$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.56 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…f397backed Yes | 67c | 5,382$3,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.93 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 1c | 5,376$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 58c | 5,347$3,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,235.6 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 74c | 5,326$3,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.64 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4c…853ebacked No | 1c | 5,267$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 18c | 5,263$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.66 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 54c | 5,128$2,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,372.52 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 14c | 5,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed No | 11c | 4,969$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.3 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…d440backed No | 26c | 4,658$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 4,639$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.84 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fc…d45ebacked No | 1c | 4,629$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked No | 6c | 4,517$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.57 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 4c | 4,400$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.29 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed No | 15c | 4,222$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed No | 19c | 4,149$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…565fbacked No | 3c | 4,139$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653a…bb03backed No | 7c | 4,100$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked No | 15c | 3,908$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.84 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 10c | 3,891$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.33 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed No | 2c | 3,870$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed No | 3c | 3,665$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 19c | 3,639$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.39 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab1…2473backed Yes | 79c | 3,601$2,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 58c | 3,442$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.46 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 14c | 3,420$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.66 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed No | 6c | 3,338$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed No | 26c | 3,308$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.34 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked No | 35c | 3,298$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +195.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 3,235$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 29c | 3,179$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.17 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…f32abacked No | 32c | 3,133$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…29c6backed Yes | 48c | 3,118$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.84 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked No | 18c | 3,078$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 75c | 3,070$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.2 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…82cebacked No | 2c | 3,026$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 42c | 3,004$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.05 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af7…cd2dbacked Yes | 73c | 2,995$2,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed No | 2c | 2,965$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 2c | 2,794$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 27c | 2,738$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.63 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Yes | 79c | 2,687$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.53 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…7e61backed No | 1c | 2,685$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Iran on June 24?this page
- Israel strike on Iran on June 14?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 15?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 16?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 17?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 18?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 20?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 22?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 23?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 28?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 29?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.