Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03b8baedc72d81ec2bf2b60dd92551bef35eca16233888294b04fa050f6c755f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $607,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $498,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $607,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 20,682$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.21 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1720backed No | 1c | 20,011$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…39ddbacked No | 2c | 17,576$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 1c | 17,502$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.15 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 1c | 15,669$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 0c | 14,973$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 4c | 12,456$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.53 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8281…961fbacked No | 1c | 11,738$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 11,595$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d84…086bbacked No | 9c | 11,037$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7e…8003backed No | 3c | 10,511$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 4c | 10,487$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 1c | 10,397$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb772…d2a8backed No | 1c | 10,303$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e43…bb4abacked No | 1c | 9,991$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…25a7backed No | 1c | 9,449$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2e…0626backed No | 1c | 8,875$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 1c | 8,748$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…565fbacked No | 2c | 8,709$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 8,384$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.3 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…99a7backed No | 3c | 7,345$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf1…1af8backed No | 3c | 7,040$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 28c | 6,827$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.29 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…459dbacked No | 1c | 6,722$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…a9d3backed No | 2c | 6,480$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31aa…c867backed No | 3c | 5,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 5c | 4,796$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 3c | 4,702$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.47 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…b280backed No | 0c | 4,600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked No | 24c | 4,452$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.28 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe841…e6f6backed No | 1c | 4,451$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 77c | 4,000$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da2…ca48backed No | 1c | 3,956$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 70c | 3,298$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.43 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 3c | 3,008$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 4c | 2,846$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe723…4bafbacked No | 2c | 2,653$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed No | 4c | 2,650$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +154%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…ead4backed No | 1c | 2,412$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…aec0backed No | 1c | 2,389$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…cc35backed No | 2c | 2,298$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03e…e162backed No | 4c | 2,280$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed No | 1c | 2,264$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd007…0700backed No | 2c | 2,151$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…7e61backed No | 0c | 2,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 6c | 2,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd526…0624backed No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 6c | 1,972$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.04 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 11c | 1,935$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.96 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…677fbacked No | 6c | 1,931$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6841…23bebacked No | 3c | 1,786$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1b…8009backed No | 3c | 1,527$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 7c | 1,415$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…d63fbacked No | 3c | 1,414$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…c14ebacked No | 3c | 1,400$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8653…c109backed No | 3c | 1,389$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 12c | 1,325$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…daafbacked No | 1c | 1,277$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c9…776abacked No | 7c | 1,238$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…95ffbacked No | 1c | 1,229$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaeb…c21cbacked No | 1c | 1,200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 9c | 1,191$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…383abacked No | 2c | 1,166$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…9194backed No | 4c | 1,121$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…4d16backed No | 4c | 1,088$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c1…7ac6backed No | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 12c | 999.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 22c | 998.96$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.77 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed No | 4c | 993.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9265…4ab7backed No | 1c | 932.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…f391backed No | 17c | 929.87$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf40c…b4c5backed No | 1c | 925.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 11c | 914.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -83%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 8c | 863.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked No | 2c | 851.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd19…a622backed No | 2c | 814.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…962bbacked No | 3c | 756.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…6411backed Yes | 79c | 733.53$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534e…ed88backed No | 2c | 708.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0be…ff72backed No | 3c | 689.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…0c09backed No | 3c | 659$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995f…649bbacked No | 14c | 633.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…3da7backed No | 11c | 622.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…c406backed No | 4c | 620.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…1bb1backed No | 4c | 610$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed No | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…d136backed No | 7c | 596.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…5d6cbacked No | 17c | 591.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…4af1backed No | 3c | 569.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 3c | 561.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…28b4backed No | 4c | 551.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes | 73c | 549.6$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked No | 2c | 510$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked No | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x653d…7805backed Yes | 73c | 480.28$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 72c | 472$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes | 78c | 464$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 12c | 457.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…2cd3backed No | 7c | 452.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Iran on June 19?this page
- Israel strike on Iran on June 14?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 15?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 16?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 17?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 18?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 20?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 22?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 23?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 24?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 28?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 29?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.