Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Iran on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f96ae92bb56176b892e06b24d7f6f54d1c54e82981d544523b7f86410fe0a59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $393,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $296,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $393,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 1c | 29,015$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.82 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 21,845$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 2c | 16,651$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.36 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 3c | 15,935$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.48 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…73edbacked No | 1c | 15,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 11,113$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.34 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 5c | 10,671$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -83%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 10,653$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…243ebacked No | 1c | 9,236$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5b…e6fdbacked No | 1c | 8,693$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 5c | 8,400$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.89 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked No | 4c | 7,193$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 10c | 7,183$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.15 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed No | 1c | 6,822$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 2c | 5,773$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked No | 0c | 5,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…c3d2backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…2edcbacked No | 1c | 3,757$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61b…ade8backed No | 0c | 3,350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…73e5backed No | 4c | 3,251$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 1c | 3,226$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…f035backed No | 1c | 3,083$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…1bb1backed No | 1c | 2,778$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…0636backed No | 1c | 2,766$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 3c | 2,761$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…af79backed No | 5c | 2,584$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,568$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…01ccbacked No | 1c | 2,525$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…f278backed No | 4c | 2,466$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970b…061ebacked No | 5c | 2,166$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 1c | 2,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked No | 4c | 2,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 5c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 11c | 1,998$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.78 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 9c | 1,957$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…565fbacked No | 2c | 1,689$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 8c | 1,668$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.67 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…c716backed No | 1c | 1,581$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df2…5e4bbacked No | 3c | 1,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 3c | 1,497$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 11c | 1,332$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca7…5361backed No | 3c | 1,289$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…9766backed No | 5c | 1,204$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…6949backed No | 3c | 1,101$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 10c | 1,100$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b90…22edbacked No | 8c | 1,034$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c1…7ac6backed No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d5…709bbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e9ebbacked No | 4c | 897.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…a861backed No | 12c | 842.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 78c | 633.6$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.62 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88d5…6983backed No | 8c | 631.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…32b0backed No | 4c | 625.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc7…167ebacked No | 4c | 621.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ded…ba6cbacked No | 25c | 602.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 4c | 599.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 534$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…caf6backed No | 4c | 525.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked No | 4c | 519.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked No | 19c | 494.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…75b3backed No | 3c | 482.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…3afcbacked No | 6c | 401.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94d…489abacked No | 5c | 400.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…c940backed No | 4c | 384.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 18c | 372.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb80…9d8abacked No | 5c | 366.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 10c | 300.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 7c | 290.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…3da7backed No | 11c | 283.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 9c | 265.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 79c | 260$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…46c5backed No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…fa62backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 75c | 199.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f0…7962backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…3d36backed Yes | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e3…6a33backed No | 15c | 116.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 14c | 109.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked No | 15c | 105.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…2943backed No | 13c | 101.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed Yes | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0946…68cdbacked No | 13c | 80.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a3…8992backed Yes | 75c | 50.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Iran on June 16?this page
- Israel strike on Iran on June 14?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 15?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 17?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 18?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 20?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 22?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 23?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 24?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 28?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 29?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.