TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Iran on June 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$393,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$296,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $393,495 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f66…b986backed No1c29,015$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.82229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No0c21,845$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.15504%2 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-81%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No2c16,651$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.369711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No3c15,935$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.484429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe051…73edbacked No1c15,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c11,113$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.342078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No5c10,671$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-83%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No0c10,653$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2426619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed No10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x092f…243ebacked No1c9,236$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c5b…e6fdbacked No1c8,693$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed No5c8,400$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.89296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked No4c7,193$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.81428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No10c7,183$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.154126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64de…25a1backed No1c6,822$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.67140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No2c5,773$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.681235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked No0c5,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204316.3%7 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.88600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc03…c3d2backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd289…2edcbacked No1c3,757$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2250%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf61b…ade8backed No0c3,350$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5724…73e5backed No4c3,251$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No1c3,226$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1514827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x830f…f035backed No1c3,083$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7735…1bb1backed No1c2,778$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a96…0636backed No1c2,766$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No3c2,761$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.786023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…af79backed No5c2,584$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c2,568$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.791,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaed4…01ccbacked No1c2,525$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73ae…f278backed No4c2,466$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x970b…061ebacked No5c2,166$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…3186backed No1c2,010$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-68.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked No4c2,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No1c2,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No5c2,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11028750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed No11c1,998$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.783315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No9c1,957$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1786451.6%33 W · 31 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x242f…565fbacked No2c1,689$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.25175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed No8c1,668$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.671520%3 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb377…c716backed No1c1,581$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df2…5e4bbacked No3c1,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No3c1,497$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.324045%18 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed No11c1,332$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.373016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-62.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ca7…5361backed No3c1,289$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4186…9766backed No5c1,204$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab73…6949backed No3c1,101$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No10c1,100$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1079831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b90…22edbacked No8c1,034$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c1…7ac6backed No13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-61.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d5…709bbacked No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ab8…e9ebbacked No4c897.46$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbc…a861backed No12c842.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No3c800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes78c633.6$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.6256336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x88d5…6983backed No8c631.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-63.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ae…32b0backed No4c625.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc7…167ebacked No4c621.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-60.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ded…ba6cbacked No25c602.38$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed No4c599.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.45827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c534$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26f7…caf6backed No4c525.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dd7…cddabacked No4c519.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201520%3 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed No4c500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked No19c494.25$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4b…75b3backed No3c482.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c08…3afcbacked No6c401.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb94d…489abacked No5c400.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed No5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe731…c940backed No4c384.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked No18c372.82$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.732520%5 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb80…9d8abacked No5c366.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No10c300.11$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7867841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed No5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.35736.8%21 W · 36 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No7c290.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7742120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87e1…3da7backed No11c283.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No9c265.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8831719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes79c260$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.66127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.6wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-42.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x8196…46c5backed No6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226136.1%22 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5621751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…fa62backed No14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid-0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462528%7 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd7…b90fbacked No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes75c199.99$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517855.1%43 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97f0…7962backed No13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97c1…3d36backed Yes77c150$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.54355.8%24 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16e3…6a33backed No15c116.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1860%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No14c109.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked No15c105.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.434639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a3…2943backed No13c101.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131010%1 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick36cpaid-85.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2521259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0982…92c6backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+43.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed Yes77c90$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.72055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0946…68cdbacked No13c80.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a3…8992backed Yes75c50.62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1127047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.