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Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Iran on June 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$425,779
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$393,685

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $425,779 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0b28…c183backed No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64de…25a1backed No2c21,870$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.77140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked No1c16,277$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.14608.3%5 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No7c14,394$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.99229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No1c11,586$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.912321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c76…d3bbbacked No2c11,454$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e43…bb4abacked No1c10,900$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2374…268fbacked No1c8,613$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No1c6,938$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.231235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed No1c6,822$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7643212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa05a…7d5fbacked No0c6,813$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No32c6,441$2,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.254126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd2e…0626backed No2c6,115$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4170%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3d…35d0backed No8c5,836$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No9c5,723$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.774429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31aa…c867backed No4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No8c4,341$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.31163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0d2…c042backed No0c4,063$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No3c3,544$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.192078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9700…0e70backed No8c3,450$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No1c3,366$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.82504%2 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-81%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No14c3,349$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.1851138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No1c3,105$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.876023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2699…68c2backed No4c2,911$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e77…659abacked No1c2,817$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26bd…7849backed No1c2,674$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe27a…9933backed No2c2,556$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No5c2,409$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.75385.3%2 W · 36 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x565f…215abacked No4c2,290$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x242f…565fbacked No3c2,281$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.16175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked No23c2,216$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.226254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c2,155$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.031,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0efc…8e2fbacked Yes71c2,122$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.741163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfb…7b61backed No1c2,038$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-83%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed No20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a1…ec5dbacked No6c2,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadd9…cc7fbacked No2c1,996$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf03e…e162backed No4c1,912$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a33…4575backed Yes77c1,728$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.24650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No4c1,612$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.422642.3%11 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7da2…ca48backed No2c1,593$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No18c1,557$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.25749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb83c…92bfbacked No7c1,556$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.32623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed No35c1,549$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.143315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes66c1,508$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.7912245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f31…97c7backed No1c1,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked No7c1,471$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002532%8 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes54c1,462$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.547142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No13c1,354$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.399711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes76c1,321$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.813458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No30c1,306$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.9435347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe841…e6f6backed No3c1,297$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda6c…4044backed No2c1,191$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…459dbacked No2c1,189$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x439f…be68backed No2c1,053$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf7e…d472backed No4c1,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-62.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked No3c1,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked No18c1,000$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.211216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed No3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked No14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1405922%13 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda45…d95bbacked No12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ed2…eceabacked No29c987.58$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.91560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97fb…02eabacked No6c986.15$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.05714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-80.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed No11c952.8$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.253016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-62.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc51c…2177backed No16c929.47$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9280%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc681…2dc8backed No3c884.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d84…086bbacked No7c852.97$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No11c827.64$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.44600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked No5c817.41$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.19616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa116…6f3bbacked No13c787.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-81.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes65c763.81$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.816439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+94.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No34c751.83$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.23229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x714b…d071backed No5c750$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.412934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+154%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2076…e9bcbacked No2c740.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf52b…9775backed No3c715.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x149e…2ce3backed No3c713.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf1…1af8backed No3c707.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7735…1bb1backed No7c692.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78cf…dbc0backed Yes77c683.62$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.081952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa431…677fbacked No12c647.42$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.651520%3 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes63c645.99$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.621855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No19c619.59$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes75c602.61$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.051181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick64cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4eb4…2cbfbacked No16c583.82$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5899…d136backed No9c551.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No15c548.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806451.6%33 W · 31 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb7…17e1backed No4c529.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de1…d632backed No3c510$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.991020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-50.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes60c507.68$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.9222547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked No19c503.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.022334.8%8 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+103.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked No33c499.97$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.991656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked No45c463.65$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.191338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9058…5d6cbacked No22c457.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes72c437.66$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.784156.1%23 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No15c425.33$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed No17c410.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.878617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes76c400$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9615743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed Yes63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14821259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x46f8…3186backed No5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-68.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.