Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Iran on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b16386c5637d55be456aa825d2eb8099009136aedaf7153321377a07a911b75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $425,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $393,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $425,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b28…c183backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed No | 2c | 21,870$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.77 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked No | 1c | 16,277$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.14 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 7c | 14,394$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.99 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 1c | 11,586$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c76…d3bbbacked No | 2c | 11,454$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e43…bb4abacked No | 1c | 10,900$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…268fbacked No | 1c | 8,613$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 1c | 6,938$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 1c | 6,822$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…7d5fbacked No | 0c | 6,813$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 32c | 6,441$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.25 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2e…0626backed No | 2c | 6,115$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3d…35d0backed No | 8c | 5,836$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 9c | 5,723$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.77 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31aa…c867backed No | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 8c | 4,341$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…c042backed No | 0c | 4,063$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 3c | 3,544$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed No | 8c | 3,450$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 3,366$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 14c | 3,349$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.18 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 1c | 3,105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…68c2backed No | 4c | 2,911$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e77…659abacked No | 1c | 2,817$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…7849backed No | 1c | 2,674$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…9933backed No | 2c | 2,556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 5c | 2,409$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.75 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x565f…215abacked No | 4c | 2,290$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…565fbacked No | 3c | 2,281$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked No | 23c | 2,216$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.22 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,155$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0efc…8e2fbacked Yes | 71c | 2,122$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.74 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfb…7b61backed No | 1c | 2,038$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -83%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…ec5dbacked No | 6c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…cc7fbacked No | 2c | 1,996$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03e…e162backed No | 4c | 1,912$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a33…4575backed Yes | 77c | 1,728$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 4c | 1,612$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7da2…ca48backed No | 2c | 1,593$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 18c | 1,557$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.2 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83c…92bfbacked No | 7c | 1,556$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 35c | 1,549$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.14 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 66c | 1,508$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.79 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f31…97c7backed No | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 7c | 1,471$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 54c | 1,462$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.54 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 13c | 1,354$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.39 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes | 76c | 1,321$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.81 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 30c | 1,306$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.94 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe841…e6f6backed No | 3c | 1,297$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6c…4044backed No | 2c | 1,191$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…459dbacked No | 2c | 1,189$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x439f…be68backed No | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…d472backed No | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked No | 18c | 1,000$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…d95bbacked No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…eceabacked No | 29c | 987.58$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…02eabacked No | 6c | 986.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 11c | 952.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…2177backed No | 16c | 929.47$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.92 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc681…2dc8backed No | 3c | 884.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d84…086bbacked No | 7c | 852.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 11c | 827.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked No | 5c | 817.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa116…6f3bbacked No | 13c | 787.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes | 65c | 763.81$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.81 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked No | 34c | 751.83$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.23 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed No | 5c | 750$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +154%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…e9bcbacked No | 2c | 740.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…9775backed No | 3c | 715.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x149e…2ce3backed No | 3c | 713.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf1…1af8backed No | 3c | 707.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…1bb1backed No | 7c | 692.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…dbc0backed Yes | 77c | 683.62$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…677fbacked No | 12c | 647.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 63c | 645.99$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 619.59$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes | 75c | 602.61$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.05 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…2cbfbacked No | 16c | 583.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…d136backed No | 9c | 551.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 15c | 548.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb7…17e1backed No | 4c | 529.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed No | 3c | 510$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 60c | 507.68$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.92 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 19c | 503.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 33c | 499.97$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked No | 45c | 463.65$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…5d6cbacked No | 22c | 457.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 72c | 437.66$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.78 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 15c | 425.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 17c | 410.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed Yes | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Iran on June 20?this page
- Israel strike on Iran on June 14?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 15?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 16?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 17?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 18?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 22?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 23?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 24?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 28?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 29?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.