Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Iran on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf62215a839a8d6c35595bb387c42b8bc34f31d045179af0f21d116a0a7665b88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa789…fb63backed Yes | 1c | 8,153$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 4c | 6,838$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.21 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 10c | 4,856$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.64 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 4,600$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e879backed Yes | 2c | 4,499$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,111$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 6c | 3,887$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.98 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 3,020$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 2,599$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 3c | 2,598$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…e59cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,458$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -42%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 2,413$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,137$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81a…eec2backed Yes | 3c | 1,946$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,526$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…10fbbacked No | 18c | 1,514$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,109$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…fcc6backed Yes | 19c | 1,068$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 4c | 1,004$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…9030backed Yes | 50c | 1,002$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 67c | 923.98$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.45 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 40c | 921$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.89 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0be3…ed9ebacked Yes | 3c | 877.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 8c | 847.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 818.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550b…ca56backed Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 777$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Yes | 12c | 691.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…5d1ebacked Yes | 3c | 653.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 27c | 622.81$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.86 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked Yes | 5c | 616.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0c…656ebacked Yes | 16c | 610.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e82…f3b0backed Yes | 78c | 597.51$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes | 29c | 524.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes | 3c | 497.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 7c | 492.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 55c | 490.36$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.46 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 10c | 490.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 68c | 404.78$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.43 | 48 | 83.3%40 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 38c | 396.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed Yes | 77c | 395.09$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.04 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9e…78e8backed Yes | 5c | 383.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 28c | 380$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 75c | 367.74$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…2113backed Yes | 4c | 355.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 346.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 14c | 344.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.49 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 73c | 335.73$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…61b0backed No | 79c | 329.41$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Yes | 77c | 326.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26a…43a1backed Yes | 6c | 325.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed No | 16c | 321.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.54 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 65c | 319.81$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 18c | 319.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…3ec2backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 77c | 308$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc829…170dbacked Yes | 4c | 280$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 31c | 249.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 225.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…182cbacked No | 56c | 214.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 10c | 204.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…9f1dbacked No | 47c | 202.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.39per pick | 31cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26b3…0b3dbacked Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 23c | 187.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.42 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…2adfbacked No | 80c | 161.24$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0d…a302backed Yes | 78c | 151.74$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ed…52d3backed Yes | 14c | 141.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 137.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7a…6a4ebacked Yes | 15c | 135$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked No | 39c | 133.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…164bbacked Yes | 13c | 126.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83c…92bfbacked Yes | 14c | 124.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 23c | 120$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…8445backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…a85abacked No | 23c | 104$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +197.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee5…6b05backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…c8e7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d4…c2acbacked No | 18c | 98.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +181.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 72c | 96.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…a686backed Yes | 15c | 93.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 74c | 93.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…de56backed No | 27c | 93.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +286.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…5990backed Yes | 17c | 88.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed No | 72c | 86.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a4…91dabacked No | 18c | 83.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4051…0a90backed Yes | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…c901backed No | 26c | 77.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Yes | 73c | 75.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…c3c3backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked Yes | 23c | 53.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +8.4wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +48%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed No | 30c | 50.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked No | 73c | 47.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…993dbacked No | 79c | 45.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Iran on June 28?this page
- Israel strike on Iran on June 14?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 15?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 16?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 17?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 18?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 20?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 22?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 23?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 24?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 29?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.