Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Iran on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39adf00f000bf978a7f9f6fadf67ceabceee776d237702287d371131bda6e24e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $337,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $308,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $337,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 1c | 34,466$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.66 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 8c | 22,225$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.97 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39bf…b8e1backed No | 0c | 21,166$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 17,924$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a8…52febacked No | 1c | 13,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 2c | 10,354$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.27 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df2…5e4bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 2c | 9,729$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.01 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa116…6f3bbacked No | 0c | 8,480$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 7,307$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 2c | 7,000$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 2c | 6,658$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 5,659$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 7c | 5,215$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.65 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d5…6983backed No | 1c | 4,820$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…1b55backed No | 2c | 4,554$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a763backed No | 2c | 3,966$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…7046backed No | 0c | 3,578$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee8…0abbbacked No | 3c | 3,128$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 1c | 3,127$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 11c | 3,093$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -83%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 4c | 2,413$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 5c | 2,220$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 8c | 1,798$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.58 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 1c | 1,505$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 3c | 1,477$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc032…6668backed No | 2c | 1,471$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fb…100cbacked No | 8c | 1,242$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 4c | 1,217$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…289cbacked No | 12c | 1,178$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…9f8cbacked No | 4c | 1,153$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c1…7ac6backed No | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 19c | 943.78$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed No | 3c | 882.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked No | 10c | 772.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…6427backed No | 5c | 741.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 75c | 706.89$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 661.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…d6d6backed No | 8c | 642.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 10c | 555.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 13c | 499.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…3da7backed No | 6c | 476.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 14c | 460.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…e006backed No | 3c | 428.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…fa62backed No | 12c | 400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…856ebacked No | 5c | 385.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…8e7ebacked No | 10c | 381.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 5c | 369.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…2943backed No | 6c | 339.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71d4…bbabbacked No | 3c | 326.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…c940backed No | 4c | 310.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1673…17c6backed No | 7c | 307.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…1a06backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e3…6a33backed No | 7c | 253.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0946…68cdbacked No | 4c | 250.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392f…3529backed No | 9c | 235.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…aec0backed No | 7c | 225.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2d…afb0backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe685…b715backed No | 10c | 193.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 75c | 178$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e8…6297backed No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked No | 11c | 123$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 80c | 119.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 48 | 83.3%40 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…8b45backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…719ebacked No | 11c | 113.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 15c | 110.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…f035backed No | 25c | 80.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 14c | 76.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked No | 28c | 71.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96e2…7882backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed Yes | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Iran on June 15?this page
- Israel strike on Iran on June 14?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 16?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 17?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 18?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 20?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 22?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 23?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 24?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 28?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 29?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.