Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Iran on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63a66ab25d89ddd0f8346d0dfae09c4f363e3fc9e61ecb75c6a03fcc69a8a300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $499,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $409,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $499,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5899…d136backed No | 5c | 41,726$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed No | 1c | 36,545$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.57 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb389…39fcbacked No | 0c | 21,790$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 0c | 14,122$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 13,884$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 2c | 12,687$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.42 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 5c | 12,514$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.12 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…ef12backed No | 0c | 11,917$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 3c | 11,908$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.08 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 2c | 11,222$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.66 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d5…4ad3backed No | 2c | 10,432$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked No | 2c | 10,086$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b4…400fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a4…8587backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 16c | 5,500$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.99 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…10f7backed No | 4c | 4,871$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…94abbacked No | 1c | 4,570$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 4c | 4,547$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.22 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…677fbacked No | 8c | 4,116$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.83 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,018$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked No | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5105…d45abacked No | 3c | 3,615$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 5c | 3,576$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.35 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…5f03backed No | 3c | 3,433$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe841…e6f6backed No | 1c | 3,344$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…aa06backed No | 2c | 2,706$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 6c | 2,666$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.48 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…7f4abacked No | 2c | 2,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…f391backed No | 13c | 2,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 7c | 2,156$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.9 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 6c | 2,143$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.69 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…021dbacked No | 3c | 2,056$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…a465backed No | 1c | 2,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…73e5backed No | 17c | 1,995$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa003…1394backed No | 3c | 1,953$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 7c | 1,900$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.56 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x836b…39c3backed No | 3c | 1,887$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…cf07backed No | 1c | 1,854$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6841…23bebacked No | 4c | 1,747$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 7c | 1,729$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.11 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 10c | 1,724$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -83%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…ccaabacked No | 2c | 1,683$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 1c | 1,656$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…131abacked No | 1c | 1,573$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…0ff4backed No | 2c | 1,548$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked No | 15c | 1,538$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.39 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 7c | 1,471$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3598…ad60backed No | 2c | 1,299$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 3c | 1,276$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 9c | 1,258$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…4f86backed No | 18c | 1,181$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…8a7cbacked Yes | 77c | 1,169$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 6c | 1,101$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…14c4backed No | 1c | 1,072$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…7b6cbacked No | 1c | 1,059$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ab…5fd0backed No | 2c | 1,051$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x534e…ed88backed No | 1c | 1,047$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…e1edbacked No | 3c | 1,026$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked No | 2c | 1,017$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe723…4bafbacked No | 2c | 1,002$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked No | 9c | 1,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…bd4ebacked No | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64c…e897backed No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…1439backed No | 2c | 992.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 64c | 976.65$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.59 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40c…b4c5backed No | 5c | 972.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed No | 2c | 971.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f8…f705backed No | 3c | 944$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb270…ed57backed No | 3c | 939.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 15c | 899.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 6c | 898.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…fdb0backed No | 8c | 875$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9554…a569backed No | 2c | 852.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 10c | 849.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc681…2dc8backed No | 36c | 847.22$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No | 9c | 804.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…bd94backed No | 1c | 786.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b98…a36ebacked No | 3c | 773.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…5d6cbacked No | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…0fabbacked No | 3c | 731$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a83…2887backed No | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d38…219cbacked No | 6c | 688.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…64dfbacked No | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 3c | 633.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…2cd3backed No | 3c | 605.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b19…d962backed No | 3c | 571.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271c…af71backed No | 3c | 535.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…b18ebacked No | 4c | 528.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…0c09backed No | 3c | 520$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…9194backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…549bbacked No | 20c | 488.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 7c | 450.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 11c | 450$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…4c23backed No | 2c | 439.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289e…36dfbacked No | 3c | 434.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…f7ebbacked No | 3c | 430.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Iran on June 18?this page
- Israel strike on Iran on June 14?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 15?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 16?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 17?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 20?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 22?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 23?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 24?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 28?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 29?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.