TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Iran on June 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$499,640
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$409,100

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $499,640 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5899…d136backed No5c41,726$1,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,991.8250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64de…25a1backed No1c36,545$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.57140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb389…39fcbacked No0c21,790$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No0c14,122$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.032321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No0c13,884$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.64504%2 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-81%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No2c12,687$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.426023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No5c12,514$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.124429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52fe…ef12backed No0c11,917$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No3c11,908$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.08229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No2c11,222$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.6636227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8d5…4ad3backed No2c10,432$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked No2c10,086$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b4…400fbacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a4…8587backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No16c5,500$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.994126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf407…10f7backed No4c4,871$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f6…94abbacked No1c4,570$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No4c4,547$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2222333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa431…677fbacked No8c4,116$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.831520%3 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c4,018$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.091,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked No10c4,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5105…d45abacked No3c3,615$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed No5c3,576$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.352441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ac5…5f03backed No3c3,433$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe841…e6f6backed No1c3,344$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ac…aa06backed No2c2,706$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed No6c2,666$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.483016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-62.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ba6…7f4abacked No2c2,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No6c2,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503225%8 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14a9…f391backed No13c2,333$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No7c2,156$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.935347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No6c2,143$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.691235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x78d6…021dbacked No3c2,056$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4571…a465backed No1c2,050$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009145.1%41 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5724…73e5backed No17c1,995$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa003…1394backed No3c1,953$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No7c1,900$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.569711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x836b…39c3backed No3c1,887$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4825…cf07backed No1c1,854$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6841…23bebacked No4c1,747$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed No7c1,729$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.118617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No10c1,724$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.39911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-83%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2cd…ccaabacked No2c1,683$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No1c1,656$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.348530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…131abacked No1c1,573$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.46520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f56…0ff4backed No2c1,548$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No15c1,538$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.39229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed No7c1,471$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.92296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3598…ad60backed No2c1,299$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No3c1,276$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.262642.3%11 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No9c1,258$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.223748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420c…4f86backed No18c1,181$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.14728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+44%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe529…8a7cbacked Yes77c1,169$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.521533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-54.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed No6c1,101$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.042524%6 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x210c…14c4backed No1c1,072$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9028…7b6cbacked No1c1,059$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ab…5fd0backed No2c1,051$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x534e…ed88backed No1c1,047$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b23…e1edbacked No3c1,026$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked No2c1,017$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.18714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-80.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe723…4bafbacked No2c1,002$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked No9c1,000$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c5…bd4ebacked No2c1,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-57%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf64c…e897backed No3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+101.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe781…1439backed No2c992.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes64c976.65$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.597142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf40c…b4c5backed No5c972.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed No2c971.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.31520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-72.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f8…f705backed No3c944$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.622231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb270…ed57backed No3c939.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No15c899.98$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13512333.3%41 W · 82 L+13.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No6c898.15$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3140828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6808…fdb0backed No8c875$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9554…a569backed No2c852.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No10c849.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8428750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc681…2dc8backed No36c847.22$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No9c804.32$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.761540%6 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7f7…bd94backed No1c786.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b98…a36ebacked No3c773.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9058…5d6cbacked No13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d9…0fabbacked No3c731$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a83…2887backed No2c700$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d38…219cbacked No6c688.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3950%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1bd…64dfbacked No3c666.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed No3c633.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.023116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba1…2cd3backed No3c605.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b19…d962backed No3c571.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x271c…af71backed No3c535.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb085…b18ebacked No4c528.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd882…0c09backed No3c520$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.02520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked No3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154316.3%7 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f36…9194backed No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968b…549bbacked No20c488.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+39.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No7c450.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2686542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed No11c450$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed1b…4c23backed No2c439.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-56.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x289e…36dfbacked No3c434.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f31…f7ebbacked No3c430.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-78.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.