Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Iran on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1787709d26783b87187e284388ea7451e0a482eb74326db554655c27722a36e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $272,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 2c | 10,913$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.4 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 1c | 9,309$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 8,600$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…ced9backed Yes | 1c | 7,090$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 4c | 6,065$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.73 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes | 77c | 5,764$4,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,440 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 10c | 5,398$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.16 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 4,789$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.84 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,603$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 4,462$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,890$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.11 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,852$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.31 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 8c | 2,648$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.04 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b6c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,496$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,451$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 22c | 2,362$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.57 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 17c | 2,237$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 2,003$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.99 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…4069backed Yes | 4c | 1,992$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 36c | 1,890$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.22 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5972…32e6backed Yes | 1c | 1,880$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,757$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…aafbbacked No | 79c | 1,638$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d99…4af9backed Yes | 5c | 1,608$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 60c | 1,573$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.56 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 11c | 1,532$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.72 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…9fe4backed Yes | 3c | 1,517$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 1c | 1,344$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 24c | 1,284$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.84 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…bd2ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,252$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,234$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…e59cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,197$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -42%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 6c | 1,191$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 2c | 1,107$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…ed3abacked Yes | 5c | 1,075$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 1,003$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…16a5backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a061backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 25c | 949.96$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.97 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…7967backed Yes | 1c | 927.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 6c | 902.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e82…f3b0backed Yes | 72c | 889.26$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…31b4backed Yes | 64c | 883.99$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…c6d8backed Yes | 1c | 835.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 72c | 830.98$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.17 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…677fbacked No | 36c | 826.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.12 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…5201backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c6…6fc0backed Yes | 80c | 767.81$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -70%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 8c | 764.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 3c | 759.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 17c | 738.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.05 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 733.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 74c | 718.67$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a9…045cbacked Yes | 5c | 716.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b4…34a3backed Yes | 4c | 675.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54b…9750backed Yes | 2c | 659.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 12c | 643.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 60c | 616.61$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.79 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f200backed Yes | 3c | 615.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…12d6backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 555$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f31…cb74backed No | 36c | 548.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +251.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed No | 29c | 543.27$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…1fa5backed Yes | 77c | 536.13$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 528.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 4c | 527.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 6c | 494.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…7c64backed Yes | 6c | 471.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 58c | 467.33$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.32 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 443.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 32c | 436.01$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.49 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 66c | 416.33$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.42 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 57c | 411.83$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.97 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49cf…a4f0backed Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…8770backed Yes | 4c | 381.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 24c | 370.37$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.94 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 6c | 366.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…c58ebacked No | 36c | 361.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x550b…ca56backed Yes | 6c | 351.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1b…2c14backed Yes | 4c | 350.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…8414backed No | 29c | 346.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed No | 29c | 341.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.93 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…3ec2backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…5d1ebacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 6c | 322.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bb…5b64backed Yes | 68c | 319.99$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be3…ed9ebacked Yes | 6c | 310.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 33c | 304.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.19 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 78c | 300$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed No | 33c | 299.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.9 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Iran on June 30?this page
- Israel strike on Iran on June 14?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 15?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 16?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 17?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 18?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 20?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 22?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 23?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 24?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 28?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.