Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Iran on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60228ec3a4a3ffbc074dfa4304e7203d59637cdee9fe5ee5451f07d24b2b48af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58a8…52febacked No | 2c | 10,450$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 10,432$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed No | 5c | 5,126$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.53 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…719ebacked No | 3c | 5,070$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d15…c1c2backed No | 7c | 5,062$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 2c | 4,650$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 2c | 4,427$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.71 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 4,304$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…289cbacked No | 2c | 3,843$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 3,700$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…d6d6backed No | 1c | 3,085$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 12c | 2,659$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…ed6fbacked No | 4c | 2,500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 3c | 2,470$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,971$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 1c | 1,900$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed No | 10c | 1,838$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.26 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3598…ad60backed No | 6c | 1,698$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 5c | 1,495$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 19c | 1,472$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.54 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 12c | 1,295$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed No | 18c | 1,189$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 7c | 1,186$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -83%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 3c | 1,112$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 2c | 1,041$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68dc…2216backed No | 9c | 1,019$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…38aebacked No | 14c | 1,010$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 6c | 955.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ded…ba6cbacked No | 8c | 951.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…8b45backed No | 2c | 936.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87dc…2afdbacked No | 22c | 928.94$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.09 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…84c0backed No | 16c | 839.61$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 8c | 808.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…a68dbacked No | 4c | 765.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…f05dbacked No | 3c | 650.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 13c | 596.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed No | 9c | 559.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…8a48backed No | 7c | 501.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked No | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb753…f859backed No | 15c | 492.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…02ffbacked No | 15c | 480.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed No | 7c | 477.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…525abacked No | 10c | 459$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 11c | 420.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…d535backed No | 12c | 414.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 6c | 320.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…308cbacked No | 16c | 301.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 278.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 12c | 241.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 27c | 240.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10f9…70f2backed No | 11c | 232.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 25c | 220$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe685…b715backed No | 9c | 215.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…a2c6backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked No | 20c | 176.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 79c | 154.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6b…88a7backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…efdfbacked No | 8c | 145.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…a469backed No | 21c | 136.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e3…81a1backed No | 8c | 136$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed No | 10c | 122$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…12ddbacked Yes | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee5…9a51backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c1…76b9backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 13c | 89.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked No | 26c | 75.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2516…58b3backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…ec8dbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Iran on June 14?this page
- Israel strike on Iran on June 15?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 16?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 17?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 18?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 20?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 22?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 23?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 24?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 28?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 29?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.