TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$557,700
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$546,732

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $557,700 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8db2…f8a2backed Yes1c33,703$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No50c29,356$14,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,761.7337745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No59c19,816$11,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,208.5358126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes2c18,306$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.751466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes14c14,312$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.4339.1%3 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+122.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec8…f196backed Yes70c13,669$9,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,567.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No58c13,486$7,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,616.074050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8e6…1ea4backed No32c12,534$4,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,494.461030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes4c12,224$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.47620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e1d…d0fabacked Yes34c9,099$3,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,057.093946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x691b…d550backed No67c8,919$5,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,963.68785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick60cpaid+57.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes37c7,155$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.7387828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77eb…9d5cbacked No68c6,873$4,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.331656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5a89backed Yes6c5,415$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.591442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c2…67a3backed Yes42c5,072$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,111.851323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes4c4,692$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.86449.1%4 W · 40 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-85.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes5c4,649$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.75407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes4c4,435$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4728113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1f…7631backed No71c3,814$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.483447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7a6…9783backed Yes53c3,098$1,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,636.81566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+49.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…606abacked Yes60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.7450%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x991f…d3c2backed No57c2,438$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.883324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-61.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6c6…5402backed No37c2,394$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+169.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No42c2,357$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.571776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick60cpaid+28.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No52c2,296$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.1440643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes4c2,167$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca2…b521backed Yes4c2,165$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.17520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb148…bb0ebacked Yes75c2,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4398…de19backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+77.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes3c1,936$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.811970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x936e…473fbacked Yes40c1,817$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb772…7b07backed Yes8c1,777$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes5c1,752$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.866518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedad…17b2backed No68c1,651$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.416250%31 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed Yes57c1,646$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.08850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No30c1,604$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.7231523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes3c1,594$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.95270%0 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…88b1backed Yes60c1,550$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed No78c1,500$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.35756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes8c1,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.225514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c1,300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes28c1,204$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.764533.3%15 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b6c…0b29backed Yes4c1,182$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b64…707bbacked Yes3c1,139$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.751414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-50.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdef8…4607backed Yes3c1,114$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes4c1,097$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.441792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes3c1,077$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.062581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x263d…e2f8backed Yes4c1,066$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes53c1,060$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.9611720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed36…e096backed Yes8c1,031$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.815226.9%14 W · 38 L-7.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes31c1,023$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.723411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x771a…3659backed No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c999.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.186785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed Yes2c929.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.027112.7%9 W · 62 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes5c900$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441031.9%2 W · 101 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2c…c700backed No29c897.76$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.41742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes3c891.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.711672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…3f1bbacked Yes2c821.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.481861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+28.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e55…760dbacked Yes5c795.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.152429.2%7 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.20per pick9cpaid+125.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes39c764.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.296446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9473…3b20backed No75c722.87$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.54520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-73.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa16c…866abacked Yes26c681.32$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.821513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked Yes3c636.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6250%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked No63c633.51$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.672045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5d0…4a48backed Yes3c629$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5b3…0476backed Yes60c628.41$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f6…8df2backed Yes61c627.73$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1501…5723backed Yes5c624.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6773…aa95backed Yes5c617.83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde17…0988backed No40c616.26$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.733056.7%17 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeae9…523fbacked No65c615.2$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.46977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fb2…a65cbacked Yes2c600.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbae0…6ca6backed Yes17c585.06$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x371e…86b6backed Yes20c520$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe65…cd92backed Yes62c488.12$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.631963.2%12 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a30…fda8backed Yes13c487.47$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe891…4b25backed Yes62c483.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.071353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa247…a038backed Yes3c480.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes5c477.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes26c468.08$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.888919.1%17 W · 72 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf794…2359backed No79c459.32$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5952…5679backed No79c449.64$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90f…b6dabacked No31c402.03$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.4580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+57.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b66…95c0backed Yes66c400$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2641566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Yes3c399.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-69.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ed…11bbbacked Yes11c396.29$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes4c393.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes32c391.67$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0834848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes21c355.86$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2714019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e3d…bd04backed Yes43c338.35$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.623762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc81b…6ca9backed Yes8c327.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.79137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1afe…b6e4backed Yes66c324.24$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked No52c307.35$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.19940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes9c300$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43a6…8b32backed Yes63c300$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1895470.4%38 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26a4…49bbbacked No58c298.47$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d70…0044backed No38c271.58$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd401…f81cbacked Yes73c263.32$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd13…e9e4backed Yes50c254.98$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.59714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6eeb…c3d7backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.