Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d9251e98cf93f48f9693116b2ccb671087d01a2466ce74cbc19c895d64f1054
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $501,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $543,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $501,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 5c | 100,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 0c | 48,917$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16e4…bd69backed Yes | 3c | 26,416$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 7c | 17,027$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.21 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…39eebacked Yes | 6c | 14,463$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 13c | 10,002$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.08 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…ca85backed Yes | 16c | 8,286$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…f38cbacked Yes | 5c | 7,054$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e19…c97dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,895$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…4723backed Yes | 8c | 2,763$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.17 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,455$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.33 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 8c | 2,396$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…d658backed Yes | 5c | 2,370$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes | 19c | 2,059$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.14 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 5c | 1,867$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 5c | 1,801$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 100 | 1%1 W · 99 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…46d1backed Yes | 5c | 1,661$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3365…626cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,580$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…1c6fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,573$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,572$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.54 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,520$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd227…dc03backed Yes | 14c | 1,484$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.63 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 4c | 1,455$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 1,441$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa479…6a67backed Yes | 15c | 1,373$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.72 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…0960backed Yes | 8c | 1,303$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16c…866abacked Yes | 8c | 1,223$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…2a76backed Yes | 16c | 1,118$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 8c | 1,081$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05cb…f625backed Yes | 13c | 1,066$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.64 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 15c | 999.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…b66cbacked Yes | 6c | 991.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab8…bdd2backed Yes | 2c | 888.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…b96cbacked Yes | 16c | 757.79$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 7c | 747.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d0…4a48backed Yes | 2c | 681.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 625.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes | 7c | 609.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 602.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 14c | 592.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked Yes | 6c | 380.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…cc11backed Yes | 15c | 360.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e051backed Yes | 17c | 345.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…8644backed Yes | 8c | 340.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 13c | 327.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e26…75e0backed Yes | 11c | 319.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66a…d5a6backed Yes | 5c | 314.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Yes | 10c | 306.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…7933backed Yes | 11c | 299.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe886…e553backed Yes | 15c | 286.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Yes | 8c | 229.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2feb…b324backed Yes | 12c | 227.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf199…ab80backed Yes | 10c | 223.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 11c | 211.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x837a…77e1backed Yes | 5c | 191.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9f17backed Yes | 17c | 172.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…b14dbacked Yes | 16c | 153.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 19c | 140.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +346.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…1cc3backed Yes | 9c | 133.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c7…ff77backed Yes | 16c | 99.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +877.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…cd06backed Yes | 18c | 97.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe475…1d7fbacked Yes | 17c | 84.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 30-April 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 30-April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.