TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 30-April 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$288,351
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$280,677

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,351 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5111…a9e5backed Yes0c32,435$32 inLost-$32.4350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes1c24,488$159 inLost-$158.961466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes1c20,027$221 inLost-$220.5319535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes3c10,370$327 inLost-$326.58620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f7…232cbacked Yes5c10,099$497 inLost-$496.62180%0 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x268b…22d7backed Yes0c8,056$21 inLost-$21.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c2,244$22 inLost-$22.114754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes2c2,023$44 inLost-$44.395514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c1,721$32 inLost-$32.241373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,643$34 inLost-$34.032922.1%6 W · 286 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes2c1,614$25 inLost-$25.332581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes2c1,604$36 inLost-$35.571792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes3c1,588$45 inLost-$45.393522.9%8 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,300$41 inLost-$41.276785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes4c1,213$43 inLost-$43.061001%1 W · 99 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-96.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes2c1,101$21 inLost-$20.51672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e26…75e0backed Yes3c997.08$35 inLost-$34.84110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed Yes2c821.19$20 inLost-$19.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d2…2381backed Yes4c786.1$30 inLost-$29.84244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3673…ce22backed Yes3c747.57$24 inLost-$23.66837.2%6 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes2c495.33$12 inLost-$12.171970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce6…99eabacked Yes4c454.58$18 inLost-$18.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2663…87d7backed Yes3c426.34$14 inLost-$13.67140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes3c382.26$12 inLost-$11.956446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.