Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x727545eb5f3f04f010d0024a4fef241c867f7d9c1b98ced2330df3bc26098a5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $369,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $341,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $369,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5111…a9e5backed Yes | 0c | 30,325$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,248$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 12,348$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.56 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa681…8b89backed Yes | 0c | 11,897$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 5c | 10,047$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.01 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 2c | 9,129$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.17 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…f373backed Yes | 5c | 8,346$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,378$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.48 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243b…4810backed Yes | 2c | 4,650$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 5c | 3,679$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.65 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…d3c2backed Yes | 5c | 3,369$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.19 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,201$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.58 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 2,803$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,755$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…d2a3backed Yes | 5c | 2,566$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.56 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,517$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 4c | 2,209$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33b…2372backed Yes | 8c | 2,067$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.62 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 2,063$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,003$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e26…75e0backed Yes | 6c | 1,847$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.46 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,308$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce6…99eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,077$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 1,046$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…6ca9backed Yes | 5c | 995.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…75b1backed Yes | 1c | 829.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 6c | 807.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 804.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 784.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd158…d4f4backed Yes | 4c | 765.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 7c | 748.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39c…90b7backed Yes | 8c | 742.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…d142backed Yes | 4c | 595.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes | 7c | 525.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes | 6c | 475.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…7db8backed Yes | 3c | 419.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…f38cbacked Yes | 5c | 379.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…87d7backed Yes | 6c | 374.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf199…ab80backed Yes | 6c | 330.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…45aabacked Yes | 5c | 299.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…a8c8backed Yes | 3c | 297.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3097…ff47backed Yes | 6c | 181.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a22…2929backed Yes | 9c | 171.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb659…48e5backed Yes | 9c | 118.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 30-April 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 30-April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.