Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5b98c248c0fce5702f4f8b8a5e26a37d6bb981cd134804e07d1a7b11ce8908a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $389,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $352,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $389,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5111…a9e5backed Yes | 0c | 21,219$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe791…06afbacked Yes | 4c | 19,804$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Yes | 0c | 16,392$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes | 0c | 16,016$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,789$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 12c | 10,152$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.42 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 11c | 8,590$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.14 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,939$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…d3c2backed Yes | 13c | 6,683$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.3 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…dc6ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,541$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.13 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…1b86backed Yes | 12c | 3,773$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 7c | 3,709$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.13 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,502$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,774$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 5c | 2,677$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,157$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.01 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33b…2372backed Yes | 21c | 2,110$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.12 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 2,059$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,048$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.47 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…a65cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,022$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 9c | 1,603$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.28 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,358$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…f6a5backed Yes | 12c | 1,180$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes | 11c | 1,056$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.21 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f21…4610backed Yes | 1c | 1,043$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 3c | 900$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8693…31cdbacked Yes | 12c | 877.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e26…75e0backed Yes | 10c | 796.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…e096backed Yes | 12c | 727.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd158…d4f4backed Yes | 10c | 494.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 9c | 477.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…b14dbacked Yes | 9c | 430.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42fa…a9abbacked Yes | 4c | 420.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…887dbacked Yes | 11c | 396.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…a600backed Yes | 18c | 375.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 355.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6293…3c27backed Yes | 20c | 248.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…e5f4backed Yes | 17c | 242.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 10c | 184.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 9c | 181.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…4e83backed Yes | 15c | 163.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b4…082bbacked Yes | 9c | 155.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a36…5cbfbacked Yes | 13c | 148.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c1…2ba9backed Yes | 12c | 145.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…83dfbacked Yes | 12c | 145.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…d237backed Yes | 10c | 130.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…134fbacked Yes | 15c | 125.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 16c | 122.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb659…48e5backed Yes | 16c | 110.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes | 14c | 105.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Yes | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628b…e437backed Yes | 14c | 102.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…2897backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…8f25backed Yes | 12c | 83.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 14c | 75.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…eb13backed Yes | 14c | 74.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Yes | 14c | 74.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x792c…e9c9backed Yes | 17c | 65.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 30-April 5?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 30-April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.