TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$292,957
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$329,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,957 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x067f…e041backed Yes1c49,997$500 inLost-$499.9712025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c16,815$17 inLost-$16.81310%0 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c16,713$17 inLost-$16.71710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c14,333$14 inLost-$14.33260%0 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes1c9,856$114 inLost-$113.75270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes6c3,604$199 inLost-$198.52626.9%7 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick10cpaid+100.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xab24…31c4backed Yes1c2,883$41 inLost-$40.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes4c2,289$87 inLost-$86.9819535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes1c2,120$15 inLost-$15.441288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes2c1,424$26 inLost-$26.241792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes1c1,350$15 inLost-$14.861672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe766…8fa8backed Yes2c1,250$22 inLost-$22.43170%0 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd66a…d5a6backed Yes2c1,222$26 inLost-$25.77150%0 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cbd…5010backed Yes2c1,218$24 inLost-$23.571118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick11cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa479…6a67backed Yes4c1,208$44 inLost-$44.07166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-81.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c1,135$22 inLost-$21.911373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05f0…fc39backed Yes3c999.98$33 inLost-$3390%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c895.61$31 inLost-$31.336785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes2c837.21$14 inLost-$14.462581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3365…626cbacked Yes1c788.93$10 inLost-$10.4790%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c49…97febacked Yes7c662.28$43 inLost-$43.27150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65fb…9f17backed Yes5c662.02$34 inLost-$33.76130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes4c585.24$26 inLost-$25.872445.8%11 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+346.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes3c573.63$18 inLost-$18.425514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e26…75e0backed Yes5c282.18$14 inLost-$13.6110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x469e…edf8backed Yes4c269.54$11 inLost-$10.51540%2 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick9cpaid+200.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.