TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$305,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$315,274

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,410 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab51…2473backed Yes3c25,259$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.8411813.6%16 W · 102 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+281.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes1c13,915$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.392270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes8c11,120$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.44270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes10c10,115$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.9587828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes13c8,388$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.0514213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde17…0988backed No77c7,536$5,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,745.583056.7%17 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbebe…d658backed Yes1c6,355$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.79147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-72.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fac…4723backed Yes10c5,498$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.1147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-89.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3360…955bbacked Yes1c4,343$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.724311.6%5 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c4,205$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.621970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes25c4,030$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.1419535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8d2…2381backed Yes2c3,630$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.03244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes20c3,291$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.3458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…5ea7backed Yes13c2,887$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.42175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid+15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c2,351$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0228113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c2,320$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes4c2,295$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.66407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92f9…e5fabacked Yes15c2,255$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.211118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x991f…d3c2backed Yes26c2,218$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.413324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-61.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes7c2,120$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.91373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd561…9b7bbacked No76c2,044$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.743452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc525…47a7backed Yes23c2,034$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeae7…2800backed Yes32c1,923$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes6c1,592$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.561672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes5c1,527$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.772581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c1,526$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.364754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes5c1,483$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.935514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes7c1,417$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.881792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x547d…ea58backed No71c1,401$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.042343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.842126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes20c1,100$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22014019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82cf…bc82backed Yes4c1,089$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.05110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…0960backed Yes4c1,083$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.48110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1f…7631backed No73c989.92$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.983447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x846f…750ebacked Yes20c971.11$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2213038.5%50 W · 80 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked No80c800$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1622458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5d0…4a48backed Yes3c785.13$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68e5…c48dbacked Yes29c781.46$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc33b…2372backed Yes12c738.19$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.31513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090c…4deebacked Yes13c672.86$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.472711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea21…b96cbacked Yes29c670.88$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.0880%0 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a0f…e5f4backed Yes21c614.93$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.391650%8 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+12%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb37b…5186backed Yes19c575.51$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.814032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec68…a36fbacked Yes12c565.39$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.073520%7 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes7c550.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4931523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes25c509.76$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.513624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2fd6…8733backed Yes8c487.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3870%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes24c468.26$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8411720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af5…caebbacked Yes9c455.78$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2feb…b324backed Yes21c443.12$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.062516%4 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b42…d12cbacked Yes20c442.36$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c420.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.046785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x335c…6e62backed Yes25c391.28$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.311216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes3c335$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c67…b394backed Yes16c320.25$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd158…d4f4backed Yes13c309.67$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.491513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-58.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9415…ce73backed Yes4c301.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes10c299.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301637.5%6 W · 10 L+4.4wins+0.27per pick10cpaid+549.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x07e3…37b1backed Yes21c292.4$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.172213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-73.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…9054backed Yes6c274.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbae0…6ca6backed Yes19c263.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd13…e9e4backed Yes9c250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes9c241.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.72786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8ce…6da0backed Yes7c234.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc13f…83d3backed Yes10c217.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7650%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes28c209.23$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.733721.6%8 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-47.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa681…8b89backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73b7…7933backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402821.4%6 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa4…6ba3backed Yes8c185.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82160%0 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a77…c95cbacked No80c160.6$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+141.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x034e…f79dbacked Yes8c156.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.023718.9%7 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+78.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x788d…5d23backed Yes25c155.68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.922646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes12c143.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.552147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No72c134.86$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7610067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5576…622fbacked Yes8c130.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Yes10c128.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433d…a85abacked Yes22c115.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x216e…fda6backed No78c110.72$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c7…ff77backed Yes29c100.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.111216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+877.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65fb…9f17backed Yes30c96.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.09130%0 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x187f…a85bbacked No73c95.28$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.733339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd315…72ecbacked Yes21c95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe886…e553backed Yes24c93.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.45166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3032…f7a6backed Yes19c92.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc06d…62b0backed No79c86.38$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.45955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60c3…bc62backed Yes17c77.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa479…6a67backed Yes23c77.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.78166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-81.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1073…d8babacked No77c76.14$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.691040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1764…cba2backed Yes27c70.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0fc…b74bbacked No78c68.79$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.153100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa76e…3909backed No72c67.09$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.791181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick63cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked No72c66.64$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.661376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5f…08d5backed No78c64.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.23683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+57.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf4c…33b5backed Yes23c51.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.824341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7eb…eb13backed Yes23c50.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.64922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122860.7%17 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0141…134fbacked No77c44.62$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.31862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe032…7f7bbacked Yes24c41.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf07…1b86backed No74c41.09$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.563141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb5e…32c2backed Yes30c40.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.