TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$455,398
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$443,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $455,398 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e1d…d0fabacked No76c59,568$45,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,124.463946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe5…8e3dbacked Yes18c36,560$6,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,621.27540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55c9…5f67backed Yes16c22,624$3,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,665.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No61c12,250$7,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,830.124050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe18a…18e5backed Yes45c11,057$5,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,024.331822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+298.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes10c7,894$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78314213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes3c7,281$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.9323411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d70…0044backed Yes16c6,378$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd561…9b7bbacked No51c6,351$3,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,120.273452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1f…7631backed No60c6,216$3,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,478.63447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde17…0988backed No60c6,037$3,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,414.013056.7%17 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes12c5,775$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.7407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes5c5,105$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.3828113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb77…f0b2backed No74c4,927$3,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.21944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes52c4,347$2,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,263.9219535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82cf…bc82backed Yes8c4,267$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.4110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes49c3,901$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.161421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-55%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x991f…d3c2backed Yes36c3,831$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.983324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-61.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes45c3,737$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.0111720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed Yes38c3,522$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.4511330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc250…8d6ebacked No77c2,978$2,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.585964.4%38 W · 21 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick73cpaid-12%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92f9…e5fabacked Yes10c2,955$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.831118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes3c2,848$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.43250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes24c2,687$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked Yes4c2,500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9550%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c2,400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.594163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c1…bdb9backed Yes36c2,392$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.973935.9%14 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeef3…484dbacked No61c2,159$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+112.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes21c2,124$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.8558126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Yes24c2,000$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4753522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6ab…7085backed Yes32c1,822$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes22c1,746$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.7914019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x285e…f38cbacked Yes3c1,732$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8680%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2c…c700backed Yes28c1,601$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.15742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes11c1,587$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.36449.1%4 W · 40 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-85.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fac…4723backed Yes34c1,479$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.33147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-89.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9b…076dbacked Yes1c1,272$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3360…955bbacked Yes5c1,235$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.774311.6%5 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes5c1,228$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.761792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.742126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes5c1,168$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.832581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes6c1,156$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.841672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes12c1,150$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.992425%6 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes16c1,141$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.645514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05cb…f625backed Yes33c1,084$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.62213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+141.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x263d…e2f8backed Yes4c1,059$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes32c988.18$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.531523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed36…e096backed Yes27c899.43$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.185226.9%14 W · 38 L-7.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Yes30c845.72$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.71478.5%4 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fa9…5f77backed No51c787.17$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.895168.6%35 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c767.37$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.616785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38b…8996backed No66c750$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2553740.5%15 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes29c699.96$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.9940643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa247…a038backed Yes3c687.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9343…3f72backed Yes24c680.66$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.14911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd3…7c76backed Yes38c672.94$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.541010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-84.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5d0…4a48backed Yes8c664.58$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7a…8304backed No57c650.55$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.734161%25 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77a6…4387backed Yes2c640.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-80.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes48c604.03$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.053721.6%8 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-47.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x68e5…c48dbacked Yes56c600$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb35e…0867backed Yes23c599.94$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.991435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed Yes6c560.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.087112.7%9 W · 62 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked No63c549.42$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.811855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1561…2028backed Yes4c534$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c6…836abacked Yes3c526.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd15…5ea7backed Yes17c512.8$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.69175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid+15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207327.4%20 W · 53 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-59.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f02…f844backed Yes13c499.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec68…a36fbacked Yes7c499.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353520%7 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d4…f1f5backed No77c489.52$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.896446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed No47c471.65$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.971030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d97…d127backed Yes6c458.03$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.113215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfade…68cfbacked Yes27c442.62$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes3c430.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.762416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c28…1041backed Yes3c430.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd13…e9e4backed Yes24c422.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.52714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbae0…6ca6backed Yes23c415.28$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3340%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dc6…ff94backed Yes22c404.25$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53b5…d768backed Yes3c400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x824f…e635backed Yes41c400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Yes3c399.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-69.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e7e…2255backed Yes54c398.01$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes5c376.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes51c374.49$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.812744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes47c371.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.052045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68f7…0e56backed No70c350$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x819e…858bbacked No46c317.89$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.551650%8 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+97.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6e41…9054backed Yes15c306.53$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.27128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc0c…441cbacked Yes38c296.99$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5576…622fbacked Yes14c296.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.46352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed No49c285.62$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.716518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c3…897bbacked No79c284.57$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.76666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c42…8bf2backed Yes23c284.23$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.37933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd6…8733backed Yes26c283.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2470%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce83…5b97backed No73c274$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.981586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick73cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c97…b2f4backed Yes17c259.69$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd401…f81cbacked No75c256.34$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64ed…11bbbacked Yes17c252.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe886…e553backed Yes28c247.85$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.96166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.