Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 30-April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc8562ea0f0c0a9239bb4063ec87f08219cc4d729025f0f9b08e8f0f9c2f52b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22e3…7582backed No | 0c | 11,010$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 13c | 3,630$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.18 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked No | 18c | 3,263$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.25 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4d…78f5backed No | 10c | 2,101$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.57 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…0988backed No | 30c | 1,883$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.38 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 78c | 1,736$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.83 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 67c | 1,055$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.53 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 65c | 999.78$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.92 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…cd03backed Yes | 70c | 994.16$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.24 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 69c | 973$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.9 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 785.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…d3c2backed No | 19c | 500.24$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed No | 4c | 475.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…a85bbacked No | 26c | 460.52$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked No | 5c | 402.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 21c | 385.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 28c | 315.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0782…b978backed No | 12c | 244.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 8c | 199.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…7921backed Yes | 79c | 194.69$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…9bb4backed No | 16c | 149.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked No | 27c | 138.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadcc…8e90backed No | 11c | 119.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c25…2b77backed No | 31c | 109$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…96afbacked No | 27c | 107.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 107$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 75c | 104.17$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 79c | 102.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…b36dbacked No | 35c | 102.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…32c2backed No | 23c | 93.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 64c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…31e6backed Yes | 71c | 78.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x003e…ff16backed No | 20c | 75.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 66c | 75.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 75c | 65.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…2d98backed Yes | 76c | 51.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46c1…2ba9backed Yes | 56c | 49.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…b412backed Yes | 68c | 48.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 65 | 75.4%49 W · 16 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed No | 28c | 43.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…134fbacked No | 30c | 35.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…33b5backed No | 34c | 30.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed No | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x026e…87bdbacked Yes | 69c | 27.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…f0f0backed Yes | 70c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…3576backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 30-April 5?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 30-April 5?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 30-April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.