TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,252
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,247

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,252 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa638…1d87backed Yes75c1,372$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.164940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb373…c8b0backed No41c1,216$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No30c551.64$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.535819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed Yes47c334.8$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.83666.7%24 W · 12 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x934f…f3b8backed Yes67c319.89$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.14475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x606c…92f8backed No36c316.44$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes74c286.6$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.068739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No28c250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707939.2%31 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Yes62c201.37$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.55560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed No52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045158.8%30 W · 21 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+53%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b28…aa68backed No38c195.85$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+96.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes61c166.26$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.841844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No34c160$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-29.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6c87…e1debacked Yes73c154.94$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Yes66c150$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbee…a34fbacked Yes67c148.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.26560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf141…d9aabacked Yes68c147.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.872343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3889…1c56backed No30c147.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes70c140$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0313639%53 W · 83 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes75c136.87$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.87560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbdf…c675backed Yes74c135.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.83053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13c5…19a4backed No37c135.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes60c129.05$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.594456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes64c127.35$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3514335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No40c126.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…d6bebacked No35c126.06$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.261010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7463…59b3backed Yes75c121$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes47c120$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.62669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d8e…b1c7backed No26c113.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No24c109.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed No32c107.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No28c97.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4485725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xce94…5d59backed No38c91.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed Yes60c89.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes69c88.73$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No28c83.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No19c83.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.982384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c83.09$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2334432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Yes62c80.24$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No30c80.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.986542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011424.6%28 W · 86 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9916…54dcbacked Yes66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.763444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa406…bd18backed Yes68c73.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.531250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ebd…9173backed No34c72.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed No29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf03…3f1dbacked No32c68.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…88dfbacked Yes73c68.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.633447.1%16 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e2…0e18backed Yes66c63.39$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1913544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe423…2492backed No26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.64358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+52.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x899c…d868backed No27c59.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.953046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a6…a88ebacked No68c59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa11d…1d0dbacked No37c53.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.891233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-47.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe73b…b1e9backed No27c52.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7da…5edfbacked No56c51.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.564339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes63c49.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.497838.5%30 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a4…f692backed Yes62c48.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.471040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed No26c47.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.223941%16 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fc0…35f5backed No49c45.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes67c44.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6916173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7747…fe5cbacked No34c43.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1761…5ec5backed No46c43.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-55.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c04…ac99backed No29c41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.891526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb98…0f80backed No37c40.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa8a…6ef8backed No30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c3…0d01backed Yes70c39.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb70c…0af4backed No37c37.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35a9…c87abacked No34c33.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.261030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc99c…56f3backed No31c32.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes64c30.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+28.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a85…f0c7backed Yes68c29.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Yes71c28.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.311136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-32.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.78977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc02a…01aabacked Yes73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22ff…acadbacked Yes55c27.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.24425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-54.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x078e…7952backed No48c26.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes78c25.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes68c25.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0710558.1%61 W · 44 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes59c22.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.83161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fa4…5d6fbacked Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+103.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Yes64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+42.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ca0…a4fcbacked Yes73c19.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+328.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes68c19.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes70c15.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.521080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.