Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2fc72c6a3f886f62501c9fb2b7df5da3a2f6a3f322712bb7d4a955417dd0c4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $640,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $723,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $640,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 346 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4d6…4d88backed No | 0c | 47,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 30c | 30,265$9,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,104.96 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…a673backed No | 0c | 29,013$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…3191backed No | 0c | 27,003$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 24c | 23,586$5,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,691.52 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…f94fbacked Yes | 57c | 15,183$8,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,586.09 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…1f9fbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa4…4d69backed No | 0c | 13,388$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 68c | 9,205$6,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,911.29 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 1c | 7,826$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…d562backed No | 1c | 7,630$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7979…8b45backed No | 0c | 6,585$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed No | 16c | 6,170$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 72c | 5,802$4,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.23 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac5…7ff6backed No | 1c | 5,400$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…9f1cbacked No | 4c | 4,834$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.31 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed No | 63c | 4,821$3,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,035.27 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 67c | 4,299$2,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.58 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 8c | 4,073$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.69 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c4…9d55backed No | 63c | 3,973$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,483.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 67c | 3,800$2,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 61c | 3,676$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,255.25 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 64c | 3,615$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.63 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked No | 2c | 3,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…72bebacked No | 14c | 3,476$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.89 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…b460backed No | 9c | 3,435$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…2c6fbacked No | 1c | 3,421$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 29c | 3,388$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.41 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 31c | 3,333$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.23 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…9457backed No | 1c | 3,202$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 45c | 3,029$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.34 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 0c | 3,023$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 74c | 2,778$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed Yes | 62c | 2,762$1,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.79 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 61c | 2,689$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.71 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 2,659$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.41 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 1c | 2,619$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 22c | 2,560$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a8…ec99backed No | 43c | 2,500$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 59c | 2,466$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.99 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 76c | 2,341$1,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.59 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed No | 17c | 2,287$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.95 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 58c | 2,253$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.51 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed No | 20c | 2,098$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 65c | 2,048$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.78 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…7cacbacked No | 20c | 1,917$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +260.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 43c | 1,890$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.09 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 80c | 1,873$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.59 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 1,836$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 5c | 1,700$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 11c | 1,638$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.36 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 41c | 1,621$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.1 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed Yes | 74c | 1,540$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked No | 1c | 1,505$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 70c | 1,500$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.9 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,496$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 20c | 1,444$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.07 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked No | 27c | 1,366$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…0decbacked No | 15c | 1,344$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 1,279$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.32 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 34c | 1,116$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.84 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0092…5533backed No | 1c | 1,091$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…4760backed No | 5c | 1,082$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 47c | 1,070$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.08 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 56c | 1,045$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.62 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…2eefbacked Yes | 29c | 987.51$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +250.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes | 51c | 938.22$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes | 67c | 878.74$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.73 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 48c | 873$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.33 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 39c | 870.88$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.43 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x763e…ed8cbacked Yes | 60c | 861.09$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed No | 28c | 839.71$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.47 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 48c | 837.98$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.77 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x867d…3f3bbacked No | 38c | 831.37$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.91 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 3c | 822.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7649…1adfbacked No | 48c | 816.42$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 73c | 784.62$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed Yes | 54c | 783.8$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 22c | 775.27$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 31c | 772.77$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.3 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked No | 61c | 762.43$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.06 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 28c | 758.25$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.27 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…12f1backed Yes | 79c | 757.32$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.55 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 34c | 754$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 72c | 728.45$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked No | 43c | 701.24$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…6fc0backed No | 38c | 700$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 31c | 666$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.46 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed No | 21c | 664.67$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff5…0952backed Yes | 78c | 640$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed No | 30c | 637.05$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 27c | 625.16$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.33 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc6…16abbacked No | 49c | 615.74$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 36c | 615.62$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.69 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b58…eb2bbacked No | 11c | 613.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd8…4790backed No | 25c | 607.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 67c | 607$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.21 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 34c | 604.46$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.34 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.