Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b924b065abae21ab4686d12f863d15ac0f1e476c47233779591a1bcd6c4234a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb373…c8b0backed No | 36c | 2,784$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…5c7bbacked Yes | 61c | 2,238$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 26c | 1,998$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.63 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked Yes | 62c | 1,694$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.87 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 38c | 1,300$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 75c | 1,157$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.08 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes | 79c | 1,130$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc6…16abbacked No | 20c | 931.35$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 66c | 766.27$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.46 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 25c | 652.28$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.56 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…c25bbacked Yes | 78c | 459$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed No | 48c | 416.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb0…ae76backed No | 40c | 409.8$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 28c | 404.94$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 24c | 399.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…3d61backed Yes | 79c | 381.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 18c | 374.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed Yes | 70c | 340$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdb…d1e1backed No | 22c | 320.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 15c | 283.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 76c | 282.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 48c | 223.61$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 20c | 222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…59b3backed Yes | 76c | 217.4$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 15c | 209.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 204.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29e6…b3f2backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…1e5abacked No | 6c | 191.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…b7ecbacked No | 38c | 182.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…14e8backed No | 22c | 181.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…f280backed No | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 166.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed No | 38c | 160.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 31c | 159.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 39c | 144.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…7eddbacked No | 31c | 127.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 33c | 127$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed Yes | 77c | 119.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29cf…91bcbacked Yes | 60c | 117$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…d6bebacked No | 31c | 115.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…c103backed No | 30c | 115.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 29c | 112.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 26c | 108.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 46c | 108.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…e60cbacked No | 36c | 100.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe19f…6c6cbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d69…0354backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 63c | 99.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…0b6fbacked No | 30c | 96.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…f16ebacked No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…0295backed Yes | 56c | 88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…1d0dbacked No | 26c | 80.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6fe2backed Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b65…3fabbacked Yes | 45c | 69.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…84a3backed No | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7290…b1b3backed Yes | 79c | 63.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked Yes | 79c | 63.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f6…f7c2backed Yes | 72c | 62.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked No | 26c | 57.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbee…a34fbacked No | 52c | 57.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed Yes | 67c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 76c | 54.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked No | 37c | 54.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -82%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…e502backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…6fefbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef09…60a8backed No | 40c | 49.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7952backed No | 33c | 48.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Yes | 79c | 45.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…56b0backed No | 45c | 44.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 25c | 41.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Yes | 50c | 41.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 73c | 41.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…608abacked Yes | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…e99bbacked No | 54c | 37.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 66c | 37.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 36.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…22bcbacked Yes | 68c | 36.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ca…05e9backed Yes | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae59…c97fbacked Yes | 80c | 34.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…a88ebacked No | 44c | 34.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3863…ae6abacked Yes | 72c | 32.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…a4fcbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +328.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes | 70c | 28.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…e038backed Yes | 72c | 27.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…437dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…1290backed Yes | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…b412backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.