Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ceaa4d4436a298f28391388dfd3ea8c4daed237465401c4e422ee8c577164c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 3c | 8,000$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.18 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 6c | 5,829$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.05 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 6c | 4,517$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.78 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 2c | 3,366$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 12c | 2,507$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.62 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 7c | 2,378$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.31 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 79c | 2,252$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.57 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 4c | 2,222$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…f94fbacked Yes | 75c | 2,075$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.67 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 4c | 1,920$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 20c | 1,890$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.49 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 7c | 1,807$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 1,119$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.31 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 77c | 1,068$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.52 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 69c | 1,059$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.73 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…1e5abacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbee…a34fbacked Yes | 79c | 962.33$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 15c | 939.37$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.72 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed No | 8c | 849.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 51c | 825$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 15c | 700.58$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 47c | 681.99$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 2c | 649.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 45c | 560$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.6 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed No | 22c | 501.23$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x867d…3f3bbacked No | 28c | 396.45$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed No | 8c | 361.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x176d…f045backed No | 60c | 308.54$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48bf…df8bbacked Yes | 79c | 281.98$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…4fffbacked No | 14c | 278.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…a1a1backed No | 24c | 278.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…afbcbacked Yes | 46c | 274.56$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe19f…6c6cbacked No | 22c | 250$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 50c | 250$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.12 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 9c | 242.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed No | 7c | 236.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 79c | 233.48$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 27c | 220.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 78c | 200.63$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf78b…8548backed Yes | 77c | 194.76$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed No | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed No | 61c | 170$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 21c | 160$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…cbbdbacked Yes | 54c | 144.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…d9aabacked Yes | 43c | 139.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 130.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x228a…2a55backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 124.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 9c | 120.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 50c | 120.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…59b3backed Yes | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 78c | 118$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 76c | 117.87$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 15c | 114.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…6fc0backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…3e92backed Yes | 52c | 98.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 26c | 84.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 81.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 38c | 74.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…6c0bbacked No | 44c | 73.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 54c | 71.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26a8…2726backed No | 44c | 70.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffaf…b675backed Yes | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c1…6dcdbacked No | 28c | 67.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 18c | 61.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 48c | 59.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 79c | 58.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 38c | 53.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa236…73f6backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c4…9d55backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9640…eb27backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 70c | 46.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -14.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…1d0dbacked No | 27c | 43.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -82%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…5cfcbacked Yes | 80c | 34.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…7eddbacked No | 59c | 34.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…09e6backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x342b…3788backed Yes | 77c | 30.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 51c | 30.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…ce59backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…d6bebacked No | 51c | 23.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 68c | 22.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.