Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf223a662c76b414d70af5a82d857a6428e0f5bc189a51e157b95d296fb9ed013
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe513…b842backed No | 73c | 653$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.31 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 72c | 556.79$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.77 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.56 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…d9aabacked Yes | 27c | 369.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 27c | 360$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 28c | 349.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 72c | 299.98$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 27c | 293$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 272.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 26c | 266.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes | 30c | 201.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…0b6fbacked No | 79c | 174.4$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…87fdbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d29…1c86backed Yes | 28c | 145.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…1c56backed Yes | 32c | 136$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 29c | 134$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed No | 76c | 131.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -7.1wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 72c | 104.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…d437backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…8412backed Yes | 30c | 86.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 68c | 84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…49f7backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 58c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 60.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…59b3backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe19e…adbfbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 21c | 57.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…e1cdbacked Yes | 33c | 54.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…f929backed Yes | 28c | 53.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…93b1backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6d…0510backed No | 79c | 45.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +77%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd20a…7fccbacked Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 48c | 40.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29cf…91bcbacked Yes | 29c | 40.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 73c | 40.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed No | 74c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1761…5ec5backed No | 75c | 39.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…1d0dbacked No | 75c | 35.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…7eddbacked No | 75c | 34.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…2c0dbacked No | 79c | 31.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 77c | 28.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 77c | 22.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…6693backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45b…5f9ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb839…5885backed No | 79c | 19.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 76c | 18.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.