Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fb536d5f0f2bc012b51ecfa347c8458a7ff1f51d66aa36e66058c3d326049c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 28c | 882.49$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.1 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 71c | 723$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.67 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed Yes | 29c | 605$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.45 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 71c | 555$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.95 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 10c | 500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6e…c807backed No | 72c | 417.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 31c | 413.6$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed No | 71c | 327.44$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 65c | 293.22$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.31 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked No | 74c | 240$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 19c | 214.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 30c | 203.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 28c | 190.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 76c | 180$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed No | 68c | 178.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -15.7wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…56b0backed Yes | 30c | 168$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…44c8backed Yes | 28c | 128.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 29c | 118$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 69c | 108.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731d…32c9backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 31c | 99.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 96.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 27c | 96.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d29…1c86backed Yes | 29c | 68.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…e8b0backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 33c | 61.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 60.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 31c | 48.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.9wins | -0.41per pick | 50cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 32c | 46.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…d6bebacked Yes | 30c | 41.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…3d9abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…2998backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc83…e1aabacked Yes | 34c | 31.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…db8dbacked No | 80c | 30.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…dfbdbacked No | 74c | 29.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 70c | 26.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…1d0dbacked No | 76c | 24.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…6693backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 79c | 17.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.