Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7e2d49bb1c6819ea7335997f89daff41c0b038c6347256eaf4fafebc3ac6776

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $38,720
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,720 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes	4c	12,352$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.46	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+3.9wins	+0.25per pick	32cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	2c	1,891$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.68	55	25.5%14 W · 41 L	+3.6wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,473$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.28	238	4.6%11 W · 227 L	-12.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x446e…3042backed Yes	2c	1,205$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x342b…3788backed Yes	4c	1,016$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e86…6bc9backed Yes	3c	798.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-3.0wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee05…e8b0backed Yes	3c	705.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac6c…d437backed Yes	4c	637.75$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	501.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb984…e881backed Yes	4c	267.18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17b2…fe16backed Yes	57c	155$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.05	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.29per pick	37cpaid	+144.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f8…503abacked No	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-50%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb30…722bbacked No	25c	50$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+100%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event