Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f41815785f3b5032e0a5e9da2759592988901f15a1941196b1a0610e1fea17e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 72c | 774$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.51 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…eeb1backed No | 78c | 700.34$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked Yes | 24c | 477$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Yes | 22c | 468.9$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 26c | 450.48$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 30c | 355.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 28c | 349.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed Yes | 30c | 335.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 30c | 299.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed No | 76c | 293$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…7eddbacked No | 78c | 256.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 21c | 250.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed No | 76c | 184$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 24c | 174.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…d9aabacked Yes | 24c | 169.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed No | 71c | 164.46$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…437dbacked Yes | 25c | 160.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 157.48$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed No | 70c | 154.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…1175backed No | 77c | 146.04$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…0d56backed Yes | 29c | 129.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac6…f9f7backed No | 77c | 129.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Yes | 27c | 105.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 103.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…f33ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 23c | 98.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 31c | 97.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Yes | 31c | 92.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 91.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 26c | 89.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 24c | 83.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 71c | 83.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked Yes | 24c | 83.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed No | 73c | 82.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 26c | 80.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…175fbacked Yes | 25c | 79.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…14e8backed No | 70c | 77.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…3e92backed Yes | 29c | 71.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed No | 71c | 69.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…93b1backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe871…595ebacked Yes | 17c | 65.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 20c | 59.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 69c | 55.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72bf…ecc3backed No | 70c | 53.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…f487backed Yes | 31c | 52.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Yes | 39c | 50.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…c8b0backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5034…3225backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…f929backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…9710backed No | 75c | 46.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…4e62backed No | 73c | 40.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7290…b1b3backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 71c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…5affbacked No | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d6fbbacked No | 79c | 25.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…1d0dbacked No | 75c | 24.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70c…0af4backed No | 79c | 22.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…6693backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8672…fb6fbacked No | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -15.7wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…4ab4backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 78c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" during Israel President events on December 29?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "F-35" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" 12+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Turkey" or "Erdogan" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "border" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "pardon" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel President events on December 29?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.