Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd690ad6d2d08203a2b35f8fd8303afe42c6651ef5633f19da729c3f688f3145
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde53…0e07backed Yes | 36c | 149.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes | 75c | 99.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 64c | 97.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 51.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29b6…00dfbacked Yes | 49c | 50.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35ab…5a73backed Yes | 56c | 47.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 31c | 38.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b9…e4c6backed Yes | 79c | 18.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in October?this page
- Will monthly inflation be 3.0% or higher in October?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 1.5% and 1.7% in October?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 1.8% and 2.0% in October?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.