Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by between 27% and 29.9% in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x888cc73ca00c65c5d1bdb10184f8f861e9ffe687bebbebe4552af3919aa0d4f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 2,686$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e06…710fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,157$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…c947backed Yes | 14c | 1,424$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…c298backed Yes | 35c | 1,063$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f13…252bbacked Yes | 69c | 999.99$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc945…5676backed Yes | 69c | 999.99$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 43c | 472.83$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.85 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4d…1a55backed Yes | 35c | 418.94$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 413.49$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.77 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 6c | 391.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 389.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…061dbacked Yes | 32c | 350$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 46c | 310.85$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…d571backed Yes | 7c | 309.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 9c | 266.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 252.76$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 73c | 164.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…dcc1backed Yes | 27c | 114.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 60c | 88.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687f…dccebacked Yes | 55c | 84.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 44c | 65.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…69acbacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +511.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…45b9backed No | 65c | 62.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 57.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 53.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 27c | 53.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac39…fc45backed Yes | 67c | 52.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…d11bbacked Yes | 38c | 51.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 65c | 45.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…728fbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ab…5a73backed Yes | 50c | 44.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…f02ebacked Yes | 71c | 36.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a19…8179backed Yes | 51c | 33.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5534…eb60backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 29.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…6309backed Yes | 57c | 29.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…bd7dbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 27.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…92a8backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe582…b6dcbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by between 27% and 29.9% in December?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 39% or higher in December?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by between 24% and 26.9% in December?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in December?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by between 33% and 35.9% in December?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by between 36% and 38.9% in December?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by less than 24% in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.