TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,530
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,530 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8509…dee2backed No14c7,392$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb04…ec13backed No18c7,036$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+100.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76e8…1941backed No29c3,982$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,13710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0f…4f31backed No23c2,109$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.6235635.1%125 W · 231 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd1c…61d7backed No53c1,495$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d4…4027backed Yes71c1,282$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed Yes46c1,279$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c1,276$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1446314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes77c1,159$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-67.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked No20c1,030$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.9747138.6%182 W · 289 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No22c1,023$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.191822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-50.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f57…05f5backed No26c999.98$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd7c…454fbacked No25c911.17$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.5830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb3…2868backed Yes78c799.99$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes69c739.7$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2891…8d93backed No72c698.89$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ef…7690backed Yes78c692.36$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.848129.6%24 W · 57 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d20…1f58backed Yes74c632.41$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9346…ea03backed Yes77c596.28$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.46580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac51…3f9ebacked Yes68c536.43$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+114.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x375e…e862backed No29c502.38$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.852352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f04…1d79backed No16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6977…e8d1backed No21c467.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221d…7207backed No5c443.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked No20c431.37$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8213960.4%84 W · 55 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes72c410.78$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9967442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x229e…c7d0backed Yes65c374.47$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a8…10c4backed No36c351.73$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x521b…db60backed No20c343.39$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+41.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96aa…65b9backed No23c323.41$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eaf…ee69backed No33c303.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.88837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No18c299.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5576037.6%286 W · 474 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa444…800dbacked No17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-45.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes65c289.99$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.113432.8%44 W · 90 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…5ebdbacked Yes69c289.81$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82d0…3808backed No18c281.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a3…29dbbacked No23c278.34$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No30c253.65$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0620729.5%61 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35ab…5a73backed Yes64c246.5$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.11650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No21c243$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5520742%87 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb723…7ae0backed No26c237.32$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c10…336cbacked No31c235.17$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.86837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b1d…a1e3backed No28c231.47$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-78.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes67c225.01$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.011241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No18c207.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.736927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8e4…b626backed Yes74c203.32$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ed5…83efbacked No32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked No22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4421639.4%85 W · 131 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7062…f100backed No65c199$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No22c194.93$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8657838.9%225 W · 353 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec90…f624backed No53c187.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a9…b7aebacked Yes80c175$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No22c172.58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.974211.9%5 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-47.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa195…24fcbacked No22c164.87$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.712835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc756…21f7backed Yes70c162.96$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.891921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick40cpaid-55.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No24c159.67$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3929024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceb4…6006backed Yes55c159.52$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea9f…bd0dbacked No32c158.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d9f…141abacked No15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes79c150$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aab…3b61backed Yes77c150$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdf…8cb7backed No20c147.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No22c144.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8420331.5%64 W · 139 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x471c…9e94backed Yes70c142.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.25540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e73…a236backed No16c141.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ab…cf5abacked Yes71c141.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked No17c136.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.62862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…ad59backed Yes76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581250%6 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd524…2accbacked No19c131.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f1…137cbacked Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.581656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71be…61a0backed Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xece2…f453backed Yes74c122.29$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.29475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d7…4d00backed Yes67c119.39$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.421357.3%122 W · 91 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42ea…167ebacked No21c115.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa802…23dfbacked No30c114.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0210821.3%23 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78b1…f58fbacked No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.591741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c1b…2527backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d21…df94backed No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x935e…f456backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77ff…3b59backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa054…acdabacked Yes79c99.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes79c97$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.211833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-53.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x764a…9747backed Yes79c94.71$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.89425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes74c91.44$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.424139%16 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ceb…baefbacked Yes44c90.91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa294…52eabacked Yes44c90.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.032437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe9…c89bbacked Yes74c89.29$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.22475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa43…c686backed Yes68c83$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x084c…0c73backed No22c82.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2560%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd918…1612backed No21c81.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a3…7739backed Yes52c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f58…129abacked No25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…613fbacked No20c80$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed No19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0cd…7014backed No25c74.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc015…50f1backed No14c73.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3b…e2f5backed Yes70c72.48$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.