TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xec90…f624

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
39
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst NFL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Mavericks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Lakers vs. Pelicansbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+72.4%+$72.41
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Hornets vs. Thunderbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+26.6%+$53.16
Grizzlies vs. Lakersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Celtics vs. Clippersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+83.9%+$50.36
Heat vs. Pistonsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$61.29
Pistons vs. Lakersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+42.9%+$42.86
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+316.7%+$63.33
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+51.5%+$77.27
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+51.5%+$51.52
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$38.89
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+45.6%+$91.26
Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+31.6%+$31.58
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+28.2%+$56.41
All 9 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+124.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+525%+$63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+144.5%+$28.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$132.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+122.2%+$49.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+100%+$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Ohio Statebacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$46.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$13.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ravens vs. Steelersbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.