TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Hornets, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,178,580
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,221,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,178,580 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 658 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Thunder66c385,274$256,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256,0281,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Hornets11c354,621$39,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315,612.4287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Hornets10c273,890$28,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245,762.4748343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x060e…2384backed Hornets11c192,313$21,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171,158.498037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Hornets10c100,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,999.987941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hornets10c84,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,599.941,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Hornets54c80,000$43,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,799.9922457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Hornets10c79,698$7,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,010.147028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Hornets10c74,445$7,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,279.336741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f03…766dbacked Hornets19c60,087$11,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,637.884946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder22c47,397$10,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,327.053,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder28c43,044$11,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,983.984,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Thunder22c34,909$7,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,675.711,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Thunder12c34,334$4,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,047.6719531.3%61 W · 134 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Thunder78c34,127$26,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,767.0812843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Hornets53c31,320$16,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,710.191,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Thunder5c31,150$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.0664517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Hornets11c31,000$3,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,589.9519048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Thunder58c30,000$17,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,449.4344337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Hornets10c30,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,899.9246928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Hornets10c29,999$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,149.461851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a1f…a002backed Thunder15c26,100$3,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,803.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Hornets69c22,958$15,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,047.7116848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65cd…1e0bbacked Hornets75c20,395$15,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,151.183745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Hornets10c20,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,0008827.3%24 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Thunder79c18,888$14,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,905.171,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Hornets41c18,352$7,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,877.1948845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Hornets12c16,144$1,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,206.5110459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Hornets9c16,000$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,512.9424330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Hornets12c15,001$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,200.8215247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Hornets10c15,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,5001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Hornets10c14,522$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,021.648938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Hornets9c14,449$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,193.2162347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab0c…3026backed Thunder23c14,411$3,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,274.161637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x569e…4175backed Thunder23c14,272$3,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,282.56520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hornets10c13,220$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,8982,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x264c…8250backed Thunder12c11,758$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.964261.9%26 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hornets45c11,232$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,132.858,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Hornets12c11,055$1,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,777.561,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7336…1f7bbacked Hornets77c10,944$8,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,571.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Hornets75c10,240$7,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,567.24761.7%29 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Hornets11c10,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,90046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Hornets11c10,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,90018045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Hornets11c10,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,899.9815740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd95…c1aebacked Thunder39c9,759$3,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,770.671127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-64.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Hornets56c9,724$5,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,283.957758.4%45 W · 32 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaba…51debacked Hornets79c9,223$7,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,975.1810947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Hornets11c9,091$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,090.9176746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked Hornets9c9,000$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,15040035.5%142 W · 258 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Hornets64c8,927$5,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,177.2740041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Hornets62c8,533$5,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,255.1124151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Thunder47c8,520$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00029037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Hornets54c8,355$4,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,843.428150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Thunder13c7,949$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.1819147.6%91 W · 100 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Hornets44c7,594$3,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,276.9216657.2%95 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e47…3d20backed Thunder48c7,055$3,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,394.043658.3%21 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Thunder40c6,988$2,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,767.4221143.1%91 W · 120 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Hornets39c6,874$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,176.1512143%52 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Hornets11c6,763$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,011.592,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Hornets57c6,726$3,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,892.328846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked Hornets14c6,184$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,334.2116335.6%58 W · 105 L-12.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder59c6,081$3,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,566.645,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed Thunder68c6,000$4,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0804757.4%27 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Hornets10c6,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,39021538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder45c6,000$2,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,669.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Thunder44c6,000$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,639.9929748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Hornets16c6,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,039.951,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Thunder44c5,431$2,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,397.7595848.7%467 W · 491 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee7c…babfbacked Hornets78c5,217$4,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.811080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Thunder54c5,146$2,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,764.8448347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2107…8f4cbacked Hornets10c5,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5007439.2%29 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Hornets11c5,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,45095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Thunder0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…e73fbacked Hornets10c5,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50012531.2%39 W · 86 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+31.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Hornets38c5,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.9647856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Hornets17c4,839$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,038.9233632.4%109 W · 227 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a14…fddabacked Hornets11c4,518$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,021.183638.9%14 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Hornets41c4,337$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,574.463,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ca…679bbacked Thunder25c4,051$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.75933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Hornets11c4,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,56043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Hornets11c3,636$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,236.3646632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a91…88e1backed Thunder9c3,626$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.635131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+30.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Hornets11c3,600$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,22035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed Hornets53c3,413$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.1416635.5%59 W · 107 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdf3…8c56backed Hornets10c3,406$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,065.3710040%40 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x478a…2deabacked Thunder49c3,361$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.119050%45 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Thunder41c3,357$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.2124752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Hornets68c3,102$2,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.0234645.7%158 W · 188 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Hornets11c3,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,67045647.1%215 W · 241 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26e2…1a63backed Thunder9c2,935$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014924.8%37 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Thunder12c2,917$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503073.3%22 W · 8 L+6.4wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+47.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x561a…8e0bbacked Hornets9c2,850$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.492263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+72.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Thunder23c2,784$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.733,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb737…98b9backed Hornets78c2,764$2,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.461752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d3…a652backed Hornets55c2,688$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.191643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Hornets11c2,683$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3915251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3107…63b9backed Hornets80c2,600$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5204757.4%27 W · 20 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Hornets29c2,580$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.7925146.2%116 W · 135 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Hornets30c2,557$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,783.4785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Thunder72c2,500$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8002055%11 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.