NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49fcfa06c9868cc4b1f39e4c2799f39d6d1cdb2d49af0bda351841e59544386b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Hornets, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets | 54c | 2,505$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.75 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Thunder | 41c | 1,740$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.43 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Thunder | 39c | 1,700$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hornets | 50c | 558.49$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Hornets | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Hornets | 53c | 405.6$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.85 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Hornets | 58c | 356.95$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.49 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Hornets | 61c | 260$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Thunder | 58c | 163.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Thunder | 43c | 66.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Thunder | 15c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Thunder | 43c | 53.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Thunder | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Hornets | 45c | 32.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…fb57backed Hornets | 32c | 32.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Thunder | 79c | 23.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder | 79c | 23.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Thunder | 64c | 19.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce42…5cddbacked Thunder | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077a…ec51backed Thunder | 71c | 14.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Thunder: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. ThunderHornets won
- Hornets vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.