TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Miami vs. Ohio State

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Miamiof Miami, Ohio State
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,287,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,467,597

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,287,216 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 782 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Miami26c1,395,697$357,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037,807.292245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Ohio State74c720,800$534,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534,308.6721055.2%116 W · 94 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Ohio State58c190,141$111,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,140.01714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-81.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Ohio State73c155,548$113,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,413.077846.2%36 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Ohio State75c126,089$94,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,528.3332745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Ohio State46c107,746$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,00019362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Ohio State77c94,027$72,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,284.6711849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Miami63c70,096$43,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,237.374841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Ohio State74c68,920$51,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,000.686046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Miami65c63,924$41,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,6876838.2%26 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Miami48c52,450$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,449.672763%17 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Ohio State75c49,395$36,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,978.881250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Miami33c46,523$15,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,162.091931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Miami34c40,509$13,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,574.3393548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Ohio State38c39,267$15,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,022.1813933.1%46 W · 93 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x801e…ad90backed Ohio State33c38,887$12,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,878.143275%24 W · 8 L+7.6wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+46%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Ohio State75c37,611$28,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,208.34977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+61.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Miami76c35,457$27,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,435.543357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Ohio State74c34,624$25,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,767.6730%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Miami25c30,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,500.053345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Ohio State21c29,313$6,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,040.3890%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Miami58c25,561$14,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,630.1219842.9%85 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Ohio State27c25,000$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,750850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Ohio State19c24,440$4,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,617.326244.3%116 W · 146 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Ohio State75c22,500$16,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,875560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65cd…1e0bbacked Miami46c22,494$10,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,237.71955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x654d…8e3ebacked Miami23c20,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,399.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-37.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Miami23c20,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,399.91050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+20.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Ohio State31c19,500$6,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,094.997545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Ohio State63c18,636$11,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,819.61741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Miami59c17,708$10,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,251.0758850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Miami23c17,413$4,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,407.6610848.1%52 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Miami24c17,138$4,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,024.922035%7 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Ohio State75c15,204$11,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,398.2638450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Miami68c14,921$10,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,769.941883.3%15 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+57.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Ohio State75c14,514$10,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,885.641361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3214…6babbacked Ohio State76c14,388$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,000520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-72.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Ohio State57c13,269$7,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,552.420450.5%103 W · 101 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Miami28c12,483$3,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,013.3768440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b4f…37b8backed Ohio State75c12,186$9,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,139.71266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Miami26c12,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,879.963158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Miami56c11,794$6,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,185.7386243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e3…29ebbacked Ohio State34c11,500$3,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9151060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Ohio State31c11,309$3,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,533.3513149.6%65 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Miami25c10,118$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,617.825038%19 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed Ohio State50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+29.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b9c…57b3backed Miami26c9,956$2,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,367.351172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+46.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Miami56c9,671$5,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,279.542548%12 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Ohio State74c9,037$6,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,716.722,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Ohio State69c9,000$6,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,169.9529055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Miami26c7,692$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,692.313855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Ohio State74c7,621$5,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,646.6319849%97 W · 101 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Ohio State40c7,477$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Ohio State60c7,379$4,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,462.273540%14 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Ohio State30c7,236$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,139.891330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Ohio State11c7,158$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.5654243.2%234 W · 308 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d3e…edc9backed Miami26c7,143$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,273.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Miami62c6,970$4,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.6863243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami76c6,895$5,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.3321538.6%83 W · 132 L-0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Miami25c6,710$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,022.212650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Ohio State76c6,600$5,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,015.994744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a65…e883backed Miami77c6,557$5,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.33771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed Ohio State74c6,500$4,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,809.971861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Ohio State76c6,107$4,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,641.351942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Ohio State76c6,000$4,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,53015751%80 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Ohio State45c5,938$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7005451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Miami53c5,651$2,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.282259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Miami64c5,599$3,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.3423751.1%121 W · 116 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Ohio State41c5,502$2,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.81030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Ohio State38c5,324$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.833951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac0…89e4backed Ohio State69c5,225$3,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick60cpaid-75.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Ohio State53c5,000$2,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6652450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Miami72c4,797$3,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.787136.6%26 W · 45 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Ohio State60c4,720$2,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,835.3413845.7%63 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Ohio State77c4,556$3,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,507.92666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Miami44c4,506$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,523.245345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7546…3a91backed Ohio State37c4,500$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6503336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3248…f20bbacked Ohio State47c4,414$2,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…7295backed Miami68c4,392$2,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.731968.4%13 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Ohio State75c4,345$3,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,258.753959%23 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdea…6951backed Ohio State11c4,332$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed Miami68c4,250$2,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Ohio State50c4,047$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.911040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5a…024bbacked Ohio State58c3,678$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150.43520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-67.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x842e…d9f5backed Miami55c3,648$2,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,634.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Ohio State75c3,600$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7005149%25 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68ce…d06dbacked Ohio State49c3,450$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Ohio State76c3,437$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,612.1252449.4%259 W · 265 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x11e2…8ea7backed Ohio State19c3,400$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Ohio State55c3,305$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe08e…1d61backed Ohio State31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002737%10 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7011…c6dabacked Ohio State17c3,110$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.871838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Ohio State62c3,042$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.764445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Miami24c3,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2801442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Ohio State37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.994654.3%25 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x128a…f49ebacked Ohio State75c2,950$2,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,227.321650%8 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Ohio State34c2,941$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9982055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Miami64c2,867$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.8548546.8%227 W · 258 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Ohio State60c2,726$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.745565.5%36 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Ohio State38c2,646$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009048.9%44 W · 46 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.