Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1c5fc963bc31600244d4088a45708700ff81eb216512b6f1f536f6216f87064
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc268…7086backed Yes | 77c | 6,005$4,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd7…27e6backed No | 23c | 6,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 19c | 2,610$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.28 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 1,653$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.03 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 59c | 1,223$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 1,122$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 45c | 1,096$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.72 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…3d00backed Yes | 63c | 1,085$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 33c | 1,053$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.93 | 876 | 24.2%212 W · 664 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 45c | 1,028$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.23 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 77c | 910.79$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…956abacked Yes | 61c | 901.35$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4187…1151backed Yes | 57c | 832.47$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd90…68e6backed Yes | 57c | 820.54$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…ce36backed Yes | 57c | 777.11$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.55 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 36c | 751.64$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.24 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 40c | 690.87$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.29 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…45f8backed No | 30c | 654.94$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 38c | 631.55$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.96 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes | 59c | 619.5$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaf…8981backed No | 45c | 599.95$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 74c | 557.37$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…40c1backed No | 36c | 546.32$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 43c | 545.91$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.25 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…db00backed Yes | 65c | 512.41$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…c697backed Yes | 71c | 509.74$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 16c | 503.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 39cpaid | +208%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 20c | 499.8$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 453.95$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.75 | 440 | 13.4%59 W · 381 L | -79.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed No | 36c | 435.6$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.48 | 133 | 5.3%7 W · 126 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…db81backed No | 49c | 406.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 63c | 403.89$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked No | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked No | 51c | 399.98$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…e5f2backed Yes | 72c | 381.77$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Yes | 53c | 379.29$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef1…67d3backed No | 54c | 373.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…adc5backed Yes | 55c | 365.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…1d5bbacked Yes | 53c | 360.57$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 14c | 353.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.99 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…2dedbacked Yes | 63c | 353.71$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.71 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…2d13backed Yes | 61c | 344.64$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 31c | 328.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf758…3731backed Yes | 62c | 326.58$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 6c | 324.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 939 | 2.4%23 W · 916 L | -386.8wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 39c | 319.64$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 294.81$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 42c | 293.36$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.61 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 289.92$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 2,837 | 11.2%317 W · 2,520 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ca…0fa1backed No | 9c | 245.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked Yes | 54c | 239.06$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…8f7fbacked No | 6c | 230.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed Yes | 50c | 230$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed No | 44c | 226.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 49c | 216.04$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.66 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d23…8bf2backed No | 47c | 210.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a4…b4a5backed Yes | 48c | 207.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc374…7cc7backed No | 44c | 206.6$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e6…c6dbbacked Yes | 49c | 204.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 51c | 203.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 53c | 201.13$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…cab0backed Yes | 54c | 186.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 68c | 180$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 57c | 177.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…72cfbacked No | 46c | 171.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf369…23c1backed Yes | 58c | 171.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 62c | 168.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…befbbacked No | 50c | 167.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…564dbacked Yes | 71c | 165.16$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 55c | 164.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc379…b246backed Yes | 71c | 162.7$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c31…610dbacked Yes | 62c | 160.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 66c | 160$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…1a09backed Yes | 63c | 159.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ac…7805backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…a044backed Yes | 65c | 154.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…8d67backed Yes | 67c | 148.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5b…3772backed Yes | 58c | 140.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d24…ab6dbacked No | 30c | 139.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d17…4deabacked Yes | 54c | 139.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…bbebbacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…8e18backed Yes | 51c | 137.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…d949backed No | 55c | 137.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked No | 42c | 136.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 41c | 126$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf307…2aa8backed Yes | 74c | 124.88$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 118.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…9bdebacked Yes | 59c | 116.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9f…bbd2backed Yes | 49c | 112.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…120dbacked Yes | 58c | 111.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb53…edd1backed No | 40c | 109.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…c0f0backed Yes | 75c | 107.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 39c | 107.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f2…97f9backed No | 42c | 104.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…92b8backed Yes | 53c | 104.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.