Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebeb54471b8dcf965c349e95d2dc89d004aba05f388b6d25e53d84770c9e0c61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b83…872fbacked Yes | 14c | 3,706$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 19c | 1,138$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.79 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 14c | 828.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.49 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 814.04$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 18c | 679.17$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 66c | 569.5$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.11 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 530.26$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.26 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 30c | 458.69$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.61 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 393.64$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 17c | 366$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…bdcfbacked Yes | 35c | 310.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf758…3731backed No | 73c | 267.34$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 246.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 20c | 226.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 21c | 219.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…80f2backed Yes | 23c | 208.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…3756backed Yes | 33c | 191.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…c1b9backed Yes | 17c | 178.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…17bcbacked Yes | 27c | 167.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 33c | 161.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…ad06backed Yes | 29c | 149.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 20c | 145.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d17…4deabacked Yes | 31c | 140$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…9d9bbacked Yes | 33c | 136.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…a901backed Yes | 38c | 134.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…db00backed No | 77c | 130.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 119.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…564dbacked Yes | 34c | 117.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…e1bdbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 70c | 104.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…cbf9backed Yes | 34c | 103.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…6792backed Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…1cfebacked Yes | 22c | 92.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…9010backed Yes | 27c | 90.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 29c | 87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a7…c838backed Yes | 31c | 80.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb53…edd1backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 18c | 76.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 24c | 67.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…6818backed Yes | 34c | 62.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…ecebbacked Yes | 34c | 60.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e6…c6dbbacked Yes | 35c | 57.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1116…4e59backed Yes | 38c | 57.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe266…03b5backed Yes | 36c | 53.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610c…998fbacked Yes | 32c | 50.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7c…6395backed Yes | 32c | 50.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…b19dbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 69c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffd…d5a8backed Yes | 40c | 49.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…ab62backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…da4dbacked Yes | 30c | 36.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9517…7960backed Yes | 32c | 35.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdd…5458backed Yes | 32c | 35.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 68c | 31.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…e744backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…62a0backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…7bacbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ef…329dbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a16…ad87backed No | 74c | 22.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec5…3dfdbacked No | 80c | 22.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b0…abd5backed No | 79c | 19.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…90dcbacked No | 76c | 19.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee0…3bd5backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…8b74backed No | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed No | 70c | 17.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.