TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,175
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,175 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb20d…db55backed No57c7,838$4,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,359.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe056…8120backed No70c7,230$5,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,176.392462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No68c3,579$2,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.098267.1%55 W · 27 L+11.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+18.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe379…3c98backed Yes35c3,227$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No63c2,787$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.41668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e3e…713abacked Yes30c2,700$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.991172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+109.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8d7…1252backed Yes41c2,460$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked No69c1,960$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.8447138.6%182 W · 289 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8ef…7690backed Yes27c1,947$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.268129.6%24 W · 57 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf86…7622backed Yes31c1,930$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.452416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8429…4d32backed Yes37c1,920$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.6780%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff7d…d9debacked Yes36c1,818$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No74c1,631$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.72966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+122.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes47c1,500$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-67.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8e…28dfbacked Yes28c1,369$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.03966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2269…6233backed Yes30c1,275$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d3d…7a79backed No77c1,143$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.67933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c0c…8a11backed Yes35c1,011$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3890…41a3backed Yes54c1,000$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No74c989.48$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.99475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+215.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4670…5f1cbacked No77c925.49$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.54459.1%26 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes39c900$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.5213960.4%84 W · 55 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xafc6…0454backed Yes25c802.92$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes31c787.49$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2461931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa24b…752abacked Yes2c732.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73c7…b175backed Yes28c699.99$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x720e…17b0backed Yes29c691.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes37c665.63$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.154211.9%5 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-47.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked No75c628.69$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes45c607.35$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27415530.3%47 W · 108 L-20.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc210…8b21backed Yes38c600$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2281127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-54.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc097…6b91backed Yes40c590.7$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d7d…928abacked Yes26c571.72$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No72c567.45$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.216927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f0f…4f31backed No70c549.99$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.535635.1%125 W · 231 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7c8…e8c0backed Yes9c539.81$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.97540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+142.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7650…fac1backed Yes28c502$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c500$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21267442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No29c486.05$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.1833025.2%83 W · 247 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c468.08$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9118941.3%78 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No72c451.3$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9720331.5%64 W · 139 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64d7…4d00backed Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021357.3%122 W · 91 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3d…684dbacked No71c418.44$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.4411925.2%30 W · 89 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-6.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa428…40c6backed Yes32c340.2$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes31c339.02$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb337…ee4abacked Yes30c337.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes30c334.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004845.8%22 W · 26 L-8.2wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-23.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x21d2…177fbacked Yes30c330$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551b…e339backed Yes29c310.34$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb51c…502dbacked Yes45c300$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8120729.5%61 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8088…9d2bbacked No64c289$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01aa…187bbacked Yes35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2010…d00fbacked Yes28c279.83$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No52c267.77$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.272227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+57.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4e1…dd2cbacked Yes33c256.14$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd77…26e3backed Yes32c250$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No71c247.11$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.936914.5%10 W · 59 L-8.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-62%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7ad4…7eeabacked No79c245.58$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No72c241.27$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6529024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3b…e2f5backed Yes28c216.87$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No69c205.76$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.343053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.74040%16 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd7c…454fbacked Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6021639.4%85 W · 131 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcba8…11a2backed No69c200$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes30c199.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6530315.2%46 W · 257 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfce…80c7backed Yes32c196.44$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.834437.2%128 W · 216 L+22.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+12.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd064…f3fbbacked No64c190$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes31c181.04$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.211040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes24c180.94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.246314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60f0…0346backed Yes28c179.42$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…7e1bbacked Yes28c179.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabd6…d695backed Yes24c167.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fc…2e57backed Yes34c153.62$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes67c150$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No70c147.01$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.811573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+44%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafb8…505cbacked Yes18c139$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb866…389ebacked Yes34c136$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes29c135.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.864139%16 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…e220backed Yes23c128.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+273.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No64c126.71$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.722138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x418d…baf6backed Yes33c121.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No70c113.95$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.720742%87 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefa6…d493backed Yes31c112.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc756…21f7backed Yes32c112.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.391921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick40cpaid-55.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a6b…0ad4backed Yes27c110.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307320.5%15 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37ec…44c3backed Yes32c105.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes29c105$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4521861%133 W · 85 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x375e…e862backed No70c104.68$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.782352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2cc…8072backed No76c104.46$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.122944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6240…0fb1backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1e…53e3backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick65cpaid-47.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x764a…9747backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x710f…e69dbacked No70c99.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a9d…98ddbacked No71c99.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+66.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes34c95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.223844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.