TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8088…9d2b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category AI at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2075%15 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+42.3%+$102.91
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+50.6%+$176.32
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+50.7%+$194.2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$235.42
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,167.34
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$339.97
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$261.28
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,076Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+53.2%+$572.73
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$471Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+52.3%+$246.47
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$403Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+61.5%+$247.84
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+47.1%+$91.52
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,956Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+40.6%+$795.09
Iran strike on US military by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$65.25
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,555Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+40.9%+$1,455.65
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+31.7%+$65.24
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,317Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+39.9%+$525.67
Will the US strike Iran next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$511Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+27.2%+$139.26
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$278.94
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+51.5%+$75.31
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+66.7%+$8
All 20 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$15.92
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$134.39
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$73.76
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$74
Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$10.32
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+65.3%+$231.48
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+91.5%+$166.09
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+49.3%+$88.02
All 8 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+115.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+28.2%+$51.7
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+202.5%+$205.05
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$141.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+56.3%+$104.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$65.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$864Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+35.1%+$303.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$48.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$106.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.73
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.