Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3536d7d6b2a69f9eed544bf089619692dbd8fa40f53bd96c78410be7c6ded24e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 26c | 14,147$3,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,608.87 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…78d7backed Yes | 7c | 12,032$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…9739backed Yes | 22c | 7,284$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 17c | 6,158$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.32 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…de1abacked Yes | 24c | 5,390$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8c04backed Yes | 20c | 5,058$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 14c | 3,549$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.35 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked No | 79c | 3,308$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4c…dbd5backed Yes | 21c | 3,264$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed Yes | 23c | 2,637$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.77 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,580$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.95 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 17c | 2,460$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.34 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 9c | 1,980$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.45 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 30c | 1,953$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.39 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…3749backed Yes | 43c | 1,826$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.35 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 53c | 1,764$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…0f58backed Yes | 1c | 1,682$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…e048backed Yes | 24c | 1,637$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…8accbacked Yes | 4c | 1,333$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,324$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 16c | 1,297$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.59 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 3c | 1,221$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked No | 72c | 1,034$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.99 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 61c | 977.28$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 974.17$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed Yes | 65c | 970$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 64c | 931.47$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.15 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 9c | 930.63$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 20c | 919.57$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.39 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 4c | 883.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 882.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed No | 49c | 860$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 5c | 837.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 783.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…30b0backed No | 68c | 742.79$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…6922backed Yes | 14c | 732.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 14c | 704.52$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 3c | 699.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…52cfbacked No | 35c | 672$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 19c | 652.76$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked Yes | 16c | 652$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 26c | 630$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 61c | 608$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed No | 35c | 608$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 39c | 596$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…cfefbacked No | 74c | 586$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 564.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 3c | 534.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…2f84backed No | 35c | 528$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes | 10c | 525$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked No | 61c | 524$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 521$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 14c | 503.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 481.28$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.69 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 42c | 473.45$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.53 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…0357backed Yes | 5c | 457$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 39c | 453$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 12c | 451.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 35c | 442$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 33c | 440.01$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.22 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 69c | 439$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 26c | 424.35$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 415.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…99fdbacked Yes | 5c | 411.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe98a…9dbfbacked Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 52c | 384.02$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…9d2bbacked No | 63c | 383$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 5c | 378$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fb66backed Yes | 52c | 374.74$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked No | 49c | 370.67$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.31 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 16c | 370.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed No | 35c | 363$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 24c | 357.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 334.44$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 25c | 332.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 11c | 327.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 22c | 323.34$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 65c | 320$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee6…e759backed Yes | 3c | 316.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed Yes | 8c | 315.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked No | 35c | 305$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c9…8fafbacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 26c | 292$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed No | 74c | 292$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24a…fc69backed Yes | 31c | 287$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 22c | 282.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.56 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 282.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…5e8cbacked Yes | 35c | 274.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed No | 74c | 272$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 24c | 263$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 76c | 263$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 14c | 260$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 74c | 255$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 26c | 244$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes | 26c | 239$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe27…9623backed No | 35c | 238$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed No | 36c | 221.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 61c | 220$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…4580backed No | 61c | 216$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.