Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d4e693277c1d7990a5227146ee70f56750c73be6f9d129e8558be936848dc85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $367,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $367,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9322…9739backed Yes | 12c | 17,243$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 8c | 12,731$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.12 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 6,254$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 1c | 4,182$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…e7e1backed Yes | 1c | 3,972$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,821$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.45 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebcc…39f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,716$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 11c | 3,692$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.85 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0109…dbe6backed Yes | 1c | 3,407$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e59…fc66backed Yes | 1c | 3,318$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…55f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,993$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610f…f2b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,682$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…8a24backed Yes | 1c | 2,645$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…d2a0backed Yes | 1c | 2,641$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3661…61debacked Yes | 1c | 2,454$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…ecc0backed Yes | 1c | 2,408$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…6e92backed Yes | 1c | 2,346$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…37c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,216$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…4701backed Yes | 1c | 2,164$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727a…c7e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,970$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…3e2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,841$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15b…5215backed Yes | 7c | 1,789$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aff…3ebdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,738$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…9ec9backed Yes | 1c | 1,699$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,652$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.01 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…2259backed Yes | 7c | 1,599$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…751cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,519$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…34a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,503$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…17d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…ac72backed Yes | 1c | 1,497$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…ea49backed Yes | 1c | 1,495$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,485$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…c24abacked Yes | 1c | 1,466$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e10…50d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,437$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked Yes | 29c | 1,300$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 1,262$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…ab34backed Yes | 1c | 1,251$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…64f1backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0d91backed Yes | 12c | 1,163$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 9c | 1,021$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb85…bf3ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,010$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 12c | 937$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 23c | 901$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 18c | 881$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 7c | 835.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked Yes | 12c | 798.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 778.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 71c | 707$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.62 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 77c | 703$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 18c | 644$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.21 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 18c | 634$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 628.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 600$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 575.32$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 521$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…9410backed Yes | 4c | 500.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…30b0backed Yes | 3c | 494.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 9c | 476.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 7c | 473.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 19c | 448$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…c165backed Yes | 9c | 441.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 3c | 438.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 7c | 430.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 11c | 422.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c4…4622backed Yes | 2c | 409.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 9c | 370.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 12c | 341.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 19c | 336$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 333.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 317.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…9571backed Yes | 4c | 315$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 19c | 287$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6233…5cb2backed Yes | 12c | 269.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…605abacked Yes | 10c | 265$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 18c | 261.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x195b…a4fdbacked Yes | 5c | 252$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…e4a3backed Yes | 8c | 251$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 71c | 247$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 238.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 75c | 235.74$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 206.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 77c | 198$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 22c | 194.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…03debacked Yes | 11c | 179.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 10c | 168.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 13c | 167$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…3749backed Yes | 13c | 155.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 19c | 155$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 23c | 140$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 121.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…590abacked Yes | 11c | 110.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 14c | 108.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…aca1backed Yes | 11c | 103.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd00…e02fbacked Yes | 15c | 102.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.