Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd251c76b2cd29cf50c3cd13e44027d8d5cf2eec1f47e64b1ca34d39912cea238
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,095 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 23c | 10,843$2,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,319.35 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 30c | 10,737$3,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,465.33 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…9739backed Yes | 26c | 8,642$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,430.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15b…5215backed Yes | 58c | 4,996$2,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,111.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8c04backed No | 31c | 3,706$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 21c | 1,982$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.53 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 78c | 1,851$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…64f1backed Yes | 24c | 1,500$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 30c | 1,407$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 33c | 1,335$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.45 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 27c | 1,286$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 28c | 1,273$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.02 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 30c | 1,269$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed Yes | 30c | 1,255$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 80c | 1,227$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed No | 70c | 1,130$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,105$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 28c | 1,086$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.78 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…3749backed Yes | 58c | 992.14$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.38 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed No | 70c | 976$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked No | 72c | 951$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.77 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 22c | 931$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 34c | 916$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 895.2$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 73c | 887$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.51 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked No | 73c | 878$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 870.98$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.38 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed No | 73c | 811$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 22c | 810$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked No | 73c | 807$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 22c | 806$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed Yes | 27c | 785$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 70c | 777$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 766.56$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.52 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 55c | 757.92$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.44 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 72c | 739$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed No | 73c | 672$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 22c | 661$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 70c | 652$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 66c | 600$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 67c | 592$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed Yes | 33c | 584$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 29c | 573$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked No | 78c | 563$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed No | 79c | 560$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 78c | 559$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.02 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 73c | 556$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 21c | 554.67$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 65c | 553.24$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 70c | 551$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 67c | 547.17$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 78c | 547$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 31c | 534$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…a48fbacked No | 67c | 534$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 42c | 533.21$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.6 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 66c | 532.8$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked No | 72c | 525.34$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 30c | 515.97$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.18 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 27c | 499$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 21c | 499$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 79c | 499$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 33c | 494$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.98 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 70c | 492$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 67c | 490$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed No | 69c | 481$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -81%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed Yes | 31c | 481$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 23c | 473.45$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.92 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed No | 22c | 472.82$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 73c | 470$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.1 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed Yes | 27c | 467$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 33c | 462.03$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.49 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked Yes | 30c | 461$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked No | 70c | 461$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 460.09$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.25 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked No | 73c | 457$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 73c | 454$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.42 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 449.24$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.14 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…36b2backed No | 70c | 441$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked No | 73c | 421$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 27c | 420$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 18c | 386.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.81 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…c165backed Yes | 36c | 381.65$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.07 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 38c | 375.13$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 38c | 370.6$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes | 27c | 369$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 67c | 367$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.89 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 27c | 367$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.91 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed No | 74c | 355$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 26c | 355$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 62c | 354.72$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.76 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…2259backed Yes | 49c | 349.76$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 76c | 349$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 27c | 340$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed Yes | 22c | 329$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 78c | 329$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked No | 73c | 326$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 27c | 318$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 17c | 313.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed No | 70c | 310$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.