Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b60be80d058d74d8827102f0614f730fe403b0f892d2c8fd654d94f62d5894f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $267,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,718 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 270 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 5c | 23,115$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.08 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 7c | 12,669$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.98 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15b…5215backed Yes | 9c | 11,506$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…9739backed Yes | 15c | 8,460$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 29c | 4,395$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.66 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdee…41d6backed Yes | 1c | 3,384$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…5ba9backed Yes | 2c | 2,946$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…64f1backed Yes | 39c | 2,900$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,895$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…6ac6backed Yes | 2c | 2,832$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…e7a2backed Yes | 2c | 2,514$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 26c | 2,427$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.68 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x296a…2bc5backed Yes | 3c | 2,412$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…bacfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,365$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 17c | 2,336$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.73 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3e…e77bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,302$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3923…22e0backed Yes | 3c | 2,286$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 2,238$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df4…c663backed Yes | 1c | 2,015$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…c178backed Yes | 1c | 1,995$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…7266backed Yes | 1c | 1,907$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…007abacked Yes | 1c | 1,830$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd40e…4194backed Yes | 1c | 1,757$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8c04backed No | 79c | 1,727$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0790backed Yes | 1c | 1,719$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440f…b6f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,538$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbe…bbaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,486$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238c…0f7abacked Yes | 2c | 1,477$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…56b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,422$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 1,339$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…bd0cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,324$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 12c | 1,304$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x696c…cddfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,281$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd464…7d87backed Yes | 1c | 1,259$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 21c | 1,242$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed Yes | 12c | 1,208$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed Yes | 53c | 1,118$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 50c | 1,106$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…19dbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,106$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…208abacked Yes | 1c | 1,105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…ff19backed Yes | 1c | 1,073$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,069$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.98 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 10c | 1,067$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 21c | 1,065$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 72c | 1,045$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.98 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f0…f05fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,041$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…c27ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,029$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes | 2c | 999.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…2259backed Yes | 18c | 995.82$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.95 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 56c | 967$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…fe71backed Yes | 12c | 952$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…15ebbacked Yes | 2c | 949$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…6fb2backed Yes | 12c | 945$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 929.27$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.48 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 51c | 922$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 65c | 900$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…30b0backed Yes | 5c | 900$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed Yes | 21c | 896$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked No | 79c | 896$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 7c | 891.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 52c | 830$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 47c | 830$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 49c | 826$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…15babacked Yes | 53c | 785$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 53c | 759$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.73 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed Yes | 43c | 751$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 38c | 744$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.72 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 33c | 737.61$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.37 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 12c | 732$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 13c | 724$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 710.75$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 53c | 698$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea3…6dbcbacked Yes | 2c | 680$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 73c | 669$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.63 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fee…86d7backed Yes | 2c | 663.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…d6debacked No | 57c | 643$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…9b19backed Yes | 2c | 641$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 620.67$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.23 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed No | 57c | 601$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 39c | 584$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 582.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 47c | 582$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 50c | 569$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 23c | 566.33$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed No | 79c | 563$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1328…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 561.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 22c | 543.59$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 45c | 530$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 53c | 530$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 528.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 521$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…02a5backed No | 52c | 516.6$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked Yes | 33c | 495$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…b42bbacked No | 79c | 491$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 17c | 473.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 61c | 462$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 454.01$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 22c | 451.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 79c | 450$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.