Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16d6a0389690cd0bc70000517b67e68441d64870227de839f2d6450ac867523b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,190 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 3c | 8,202$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 5,878$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 0c | 4,768$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,777$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67c4…4622backed Yes | 0c | 3,584$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,991$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d2…f79bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,980$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 0c | 2,689$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,441$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…4999backed Yes | 1c | 1,881$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 3c | 1,180$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,062$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,045$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 955.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…99fdbacked Yes | 3c | 769.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856c…9ce7backed Yes | 2c | 763.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 1c | 750.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf70a…541dbacked Yes | 3c | 690.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 2c | 557.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 5c | 473.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 77c | 391.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 385$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 12c | 384$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed No | 78c | 324$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 22c | 294$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 207.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 14c | 160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…4e30backed Yes | 27c | 151.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…208cbacked Yes | 7c | 135.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 128.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8d…6e40backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…5a07backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.