TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,157 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2707…0afabacked Yes80c3,599$2,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.3210037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No45c3,031$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.7652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd18a…98aebacked No57c2,631$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.253336.4%12 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No59c2,412$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.8719957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59ff…c1ffbacked Yes56c2,141$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes36c2,106$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.086030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…31abbacked Yes36c1,584$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.265628.6%16 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No11c1,565$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4915014%21 W · 129 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c0…7a87backed Yes38c1,548$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c1,414$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.6988448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dbb…7946backed Yes40c1,357$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.91633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No32c1,296$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.235843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048e…6e41backed Yes57c1,209$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.052313%3 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e4c…1739backed Yes68c1,143$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.55650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+71.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes34c1,119$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.931233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa212…827fbacked Yes42c1,068$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.75728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes56c1,008$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.1828434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6da2…ea14backed Yes50c886.34$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.8425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No65c872.05$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.315121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes74c856.45$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.3115230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcb3b…a2b6backed No1c827.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5380%0 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes22c821.2$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.746040%24 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d4…d3aabacked Yes24c737.4$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.611241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85e5…eea3backed Yes62c720.13$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.13475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+102.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No56c720$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.210122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No2c699.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3772.6%2 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes38c695.97$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.5516612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf523…edb2backed Yes56c664.59$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+97.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b9e…f0b2backed Yes34c618.8$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes21c604.9$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.324634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6548…7337backed Yes41c602.94$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.431315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-67.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No49c557.53$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.3436742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes54c544$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.4731534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No73c537.51$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.936142.6%26 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Yes39c512.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.822450%12 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd28f…23cabacked Yes39c478.69$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35b2…8abdbacked No25c455.37$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.851338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes40c410.92$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.4217037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…072dbacked Yes43c407.76$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.83812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-70.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c87…3b59backed Yes41c382.23$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.685100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No65c362.54$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.517554.7%41 W · 34 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdfa…4a1cbacked Yes33c359.85$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.85650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No44c353.99$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.445149%25 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x075f…5eb5backed Yes56c353.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.363100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+191.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb3f…313bbacked Yes31c320.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.261060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf84…3035backed Yes36c303.97$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes38c299.41$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.0744921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6bd…1906backed Yes45c298.27$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes29c293.66$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.8718216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes38c290.66$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.9237117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x410c…5887backed Yes38c290.26$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.96540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Yes34c287.19$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.59633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58bb…d337backed No4c270.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8953…7f3abacked Yes57c245.11$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.111816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No37c241.43$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.437646.1%35 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c224.87$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6826052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes42c212.79$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.425433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd388…add7backed Yes42c208.12$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed Yes27c201$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.798657%49 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked No60c200$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked Yes44c200$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1131650%8 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82ed…b788backed Yes25c199$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.961346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde78…ac57backed Yes41c195.98$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…a8c9backed Yes71c190$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4d…8ab0backed Yes22c185.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.68450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+51.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf25…b223backed Yes27c179.81$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+30.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf58…8cccbacked Yes38c173.95$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.95450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcde5…bc0abacked Yes40c155.75$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f71…b80ebacked Yes52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.28650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d8b…9ce9backed Yes44c150$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f84…0458backed Yes26c145.51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.811050%5 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+51.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x169e…dd29backed Yes24c144.59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.09825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes32c144.54$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.231258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x049b…ebb2backed Yes36c140.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde02…1402backed Yes23c138.71$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.241040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd1…7040backed Yes45c136.62$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.62650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No21c134.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5711349.6%56 W · 57 L+28.4wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+106.5%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x90fa…d7f0backed Yes75c133.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.98683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+34.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes35c130$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.53834.2%13 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed No55c128.43$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.26933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ca2…27d1backed Yes41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+113.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e9b…c802backed Yes41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+103.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc37b…9b85backed Yes23c116.72$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.991338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ed…982cbacked Yes43c116$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.12333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b8…58debacked Yes36c112.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf4d…ab44backed Yes45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed No17c108.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.141936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0371…ce75backed Yes38c104.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.22966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+208.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cd0…9a54backed Yes44c102.75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e9ebbacked No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0291…ab78backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69a1…d5abbacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes30c99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3359…2273backed Yes29c95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.45850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed No71c93$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.031233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes38c91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.984035%14 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2faf…d59dbacked Yes25c88.4$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.951250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x117b…9c17backed Yes36c86.05$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9b…553fbacked Yes48c78.65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No52c78.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.97436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.