Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f1be7f758091a533445799f7048014b4c519f6be7bb9f733fa65c991fb8486a

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 19, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $57,033
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,125

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,033 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd18a…98aebacked Yes	7c	3,937$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.3	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2df…b572backed Yes	0c	3,460$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c5…119dbacked Yes	2c	1,674$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.82	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cac…74a3backed Yes	1c	1,590$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes	9c	1,563$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.21	315	34%107 W · 208 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…b8acbacked Yes	2c	1,445$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,445$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.54	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	15c	999.97$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	9c	885.34$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.34	302	33.8%102 W · 200 L	+19.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	852.05$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.19	254	3.5%9 W · 245 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	2c	802.64$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	166	4.2%7 W · 159 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	781.19$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.59	115	2.6%3 W · 112 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-47%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	7c	780.93$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.8	241	10.8%26 W · 215 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-34%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	12c	683.1$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.33	170	37.6%64 W · 106 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	675.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	77	2.6%2 W · 75 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	651.4$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.98	234	4.3%10 W · 224 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes	17c	599.97$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	8c	549.65$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.39	528	50.8%268 W · 260 L	+20.9wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	3c	416.3$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	8c	383.62$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.16	182	16.5%30 W · 152 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8be…84b7backed Yes	29c	333.98$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d4…d3aabacked Yes	12c	288.1$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.32	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.17per pick	25cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes	19c	281.16$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.42	432	43.1%186 W · 246 L	+29.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	6c	278.97$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	103	31.1%32 W · 71 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	247.58$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.22	211	7.1%15 W · 196 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa553…3c98backed Yes	11c	241$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.39	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	6c	237$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.82	150	26%39 W · 111 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f2c…e158backed Yes	5c	220$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb433…f543backed Yes	23c	218.49$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	284	34.2%97 W · 187 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes	7c	199.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.86	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+7.1wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+74.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe621…576abacked Yes	7c	198.03$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes	12c	173.17$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	239	21.3%51 W · 188 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	160.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	563	14.6%82 W · 481 L	-39.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b6…30dabacked Yes	10c	142.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	8c	133.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes	13c	118.35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.82	74	16.2%12 W · 62 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	24c	106.3$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.51	316	35.1%111 W · 205 L	-11.1wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	25c	97$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.79	1,318	43.9%579 W · 739 L	-26.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	12c	84.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	67c	80$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.1	199	57.3%114 W · 85 L	+6.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	26c	80$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	112	22.3%25 W · 87 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6548…7337backed Yes	33c	47.3$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.61	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	31cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	74c	32.38$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.42	463	30.2%140 W · 323 L	-20.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No	73c	14.68$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.98	203	28.6%58 W · 145 L	-11.4wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event