TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,225
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,225 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes23c5,238$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.2725337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes3c3,850$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.94634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6452…616dbacked Yes35c2,201$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.341225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid+9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2df…b572backed Yes10c2,200$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.24911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc547…01babacked Yes1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-89.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd18a…98aebacked Yes19c1,965$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.133336.4%12 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c5…119dbacked Yes3c1,628$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.41520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No77c1,547$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.926142.6%26 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No65c1,402$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.1519957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes41c1,350$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.56030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes20c1,202$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.231233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77fd…b6c8backed No59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4102250%11 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6967…84bfbacked Yes40c999.97$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.991827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-60.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes24c942.77$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed No60c804.83$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.0314240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c763.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.592344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes16c691.86$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0317037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No71c674.79$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.0557636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c669.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.541152.6%3 W · 112 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No68c652$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.983818.4%7 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaad…aa81backed Yes2c646.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes2c610.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04772.6%2 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes5c593.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1314834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes28c555$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.915026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682d…31abbacked Yes41c525$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.865628.6%16 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes32c506.73$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1318216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes38c488.67$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.4610331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes18c469.77$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0644921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x713a…c808backed Yes27c365.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes26c353.64$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8256314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes39c348.52$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9714947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee8…79dfbacked Yes34c340.93$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5260%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes3c332.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes10c318$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.85536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bce…2a45backed Yes32c310.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes42c300$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1265141.2%21 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+108.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eeb…568dbacked Yes30c296.87$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.061030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No60c281.95$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.697954.4%43 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6548…7337backed Yes40c261.23$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.391315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-67.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes25c247.4$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1830233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7057…e59cbacked Yes44c228.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-60.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No60c220$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.777631.6%24 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked Yes8c210$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.771323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-49.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No74c208.91$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2846330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c189.04$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3326052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf25…b223backed Yes30c180$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+30.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes24c177.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.457552%39 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No80c163.73$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.499017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xe8be…84b7backed No77c159.75$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes11c153.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.011936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed No66c149.89$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.963834.2%13 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes42c149$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ed…982cbacked Yes34c147$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.98333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58db…3fd1backed Yes14c142.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdddc…9935backed Yes42c135.8$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.37333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+128.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes25c121$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.410741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c13…6c24backed Yes33c106.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No78c104.7$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.165121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb433…f543backed Yes29c102.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No75c100.37$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.987554.7%41 W · 34 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ed…b788backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Yes22c93.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.944951%25 W · 24 L+6.4wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf69…a982backed No80c87.5$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bd0…23c7backed Yes33c86.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5640%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes12c84.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.317416.2%12 W · 62 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes13c84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.169328%26 W · 67 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No64c80.56$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2915230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x470f…7b77backed No77c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.44100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60eb…bbf0backed Yes28c71.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e2…6959backed Yes40c69.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc46…cbfabacked Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8092…b8a2backed Yes41c67.63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.42343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe107…eef0backed Yes40c63.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd0…550abacked No59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.64146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f5b…12d0backed Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No62c59.29$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3120328.6%58 W · 145 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x00cf…62b3backed Yes38c57.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+56%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7006…4833backed No67c57.09$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes39c56.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.21911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid+177.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes21c56.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9423921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes23c55.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9215022.7%34 W · 116 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No72c54.78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6111222.3%25 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes29c53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.37100%0 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed No71c53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.371266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+43.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5476…a0febacked Yes24c51.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bd7…c5a4backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e23…ac52backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2faf…d59dbacked Yes38c48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea3a…c250backed Yes39c45.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed6f…10abbacked Yes41c44.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+62.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes30c41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.35358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.83036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf8f2…96cfbacked Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd65e…38ebbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No75c37.86$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.391,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb761…253abacked Yes38c36.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+49.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e2…dbc6backed Yes39c30.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+85.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d4…d3aabacked Yes36c30.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.021241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31ff…98b4backed Yes40c30.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.041050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.936742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.