TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$173,338
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,338 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes11c22,288$2,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.6825337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67f7…4881backed Yes22c11,450$2,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd18a…98aebacked Yes20c4,590$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.153336.4%12 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes26c3,820$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.8910037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd900…5d15backed No78c3,100$2,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8966…9131backed No78c3,050$2,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc9…553abacked No78c2,880$2,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2df…b572backed Yes3c2,482$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.45911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa378…18fabacked No78c2,420$1,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes20c2,110$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.6757636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes7c2,000$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4243243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes6c2,000$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.991811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-48.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes13c1,985$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.915121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f1…42c0backed Yes4c1,745$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1760%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes14c1,531$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.466622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes7c1,390$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.133834.2%13 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb851…b35ebacked Yes2c1,255$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes14c1,048$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3216612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfad9…627fbacked Yes2c1,038$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed61…1c9abacked Yes23c1,008$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+69.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes5c1,000$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5314240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes22c987.57$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.424766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes6c965.49$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6430233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda1a…ef06backed Yes20c798.29$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c795.69$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.191,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes7c793.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.131534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes9c752.74$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.124110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c750$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.452344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes21c709.9$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.228434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9e…f0b2backed Yes30c698.16$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.23742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x169e…dd29backed Yes7c660.08$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.29825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6da2…ea14backed Yes4c591.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d3b…7654backed Yes8c588.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes17c575.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.491425.6%8 W · 134 L-27.2wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes10c535.1$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.333710.8%4 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+67.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes10c504$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3215014%21 W · 129 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes6c499.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.52250%11 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes3c498.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.249328%26 W · 67 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26cb…3e56backed Yes10c497.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.11625%4 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+110%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c485.29$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.256314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc6c2…c6c8backed Yes22c450.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes13c443.05$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6518216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0280…b1a0backed Yes16c431.81$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6770%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47dc…c27ebacked Yes23c416.3$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.52937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No79c415.38$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.245149%25 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes6c401.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4514947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa553…3c98backed Yes17c396.13$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.74825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd42…d1c3backed Yes13c339.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+194.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes24c313$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.455536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes6c300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.46311.1%7 W · 56 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+117.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed Yes21c275.32$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.418657%49 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes6c267.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.72229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5254…891bbacked Yes24c253.19$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed No75c236$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.261154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed No78c225$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6548…7337backed Yes15c215.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-67.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-44.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31de…03ffbacked Yes19c198.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.11741.2%7 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes9c182.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.987123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8953…7f3abacked Yes22c178.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes7c178.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5622029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c169.33$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3626052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3765…18ebbacked No76c163.78$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes18c155.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes14c150.66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.573636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a40…2d44backed Yes21c147.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No67c141.09$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6911069.1%76 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54af…de1ebacked Yes7c139.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe39e…8961backed Yes9c132.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe36f…8f51backed Yes8c129.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b60…fd42backed Yes28c124.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9da…f9debacked Yes21c121.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.321729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-43.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…a8c9backed Yes28c120$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb76…5965backed Yes16c115.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b6…30dabacked Yes18c106.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.07933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No77c106.03$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.182133.3%7 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-49.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8167…c580backed No78c106$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8143…9698backed Yes22c106$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf661…c7cabacked Yes19c105.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x727e…8b9dbacked Yes18c104$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.121566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes30c100.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303831.6%12 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0b…b8b2backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.651526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b30…6c12backed Yes22c89.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-79.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7211…86b6backed Yes21c86.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ddc…4276backed Yes31c81.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…b395backed Yes15c80.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.281145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf30b…66b8backed Yes24c79.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x679c…4eb7backed Yes21c78.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78c4…8209backed Yes20c76.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c76$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.771,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Yes21c71.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.161631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+51.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x037c…686dbacked Yes29c70.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff20…08d2backed Yes33c69.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes18c69.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6717037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0780…8f11backed Yes17c69.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed No69c69.08$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.32580%20 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes25c67.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7314834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc0…8100backed Yes23c61.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.18137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick25cpaid-87.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.