TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will António José Seguro win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,092 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd18a…98aebacked Yes24c5,490$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.673336.4%12 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785d…0254backed Yes2c4,196$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1681…4ca8backed Yes1c2,882$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes12c2,269$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.8616612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa212…827fbacked Yes38c1,068$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.26728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No70c1,049$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.4119957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes30c1,002$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0287…6fdbbacked Yes11c817$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.87333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes22c779$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.6352850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes26c739.76$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.141233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x120a…1e2ebacked Yes10c704$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes18c692.49$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7731534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes22c674.38$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.255630.4%17 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26cb…3e56backed Yes16c589.97$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.321625%4 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+110%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa23d…8eaebacked Yes10c587.93$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed No67c524.89$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.671855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes26c499.96$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.498932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes20c496.63$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.521,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes11c465.89$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.716030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes5c464.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2630233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes26c463.8$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.695121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea72…16a2backed Yes11c447$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ef5…83cbbacked Yes13c423$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf2…2d63backed Yes10c416.54$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes5c415$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7815014%21 W · 129 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes26c387.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No72c386.61$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.65149%25 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9e…f0b2backed Yes38c386.23$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f56…a330backed Yes14c363.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+57.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7615…ea36backed Yes32c355.04$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43a9…faebbacked No77c352.34$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.981361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes9c331.41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8124110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes10c315.54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.773710.8%4 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+67.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes17c309.2$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0718216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes11c300.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6815022.7%34 W · 116 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e8c…30bbbacked Yes21c300$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb276…5e63backed Yes34c300$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4eb…86b9backed No66c299.84$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6c2…c6c8backed Yes35c282.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c37…2994backed Yes35c282.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee43…7f62backed Yes11c276.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9a…6242backed Yes21c276.28$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.11425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb15a…a1c5backed Yes18c276.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+59.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x55ae…a705backed Yes38c267.42$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7665…f332backed Yes23c262.31$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.16425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f1…9f1cbacked Yes13c251.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6548…7337backed Yes38c229.96$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.891315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-67.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf087…40f5backed Yes10c220$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.71650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+219%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9551…8c45backed No65c219.69$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.421662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-1.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dab…bfa8backed No67c219$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd7…c5a4backed Yes13c217.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.67728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30b…66b8backed Yes43c203.73$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.41650%8 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No68c199.99$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.128434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d4…d3aabacked Yes22c197.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.631241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes13c182.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.081425.6%8 W · 134 L-27.2wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xcf25…b223backed Yes22c180$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+30.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No77c179.83$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.861,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f42…ab62backed Yes23c171.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Yes35c170.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602450%12 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes31c158.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7831635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb04b…9a27backed Yes39c151.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.47616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf1e…2f5abacked Yes34c150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ad…29b8backed No66c150$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked Yes25c144$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.31323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-49.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c139.57$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2726052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c137.89$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c5…119dbacked Yes35c131.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.39520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa553…3c98backed Yes19c122$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.86825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ee…eacabacked Yes36c118.45$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe554…3c40backed Yes35c113.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No71c110.78$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5811069.1%76 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b9…98a3backed Yes29c110.11$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1140%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8953…7f3abacked Yes37c108.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfb7…2077backed Yes30c105.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d8…9a82backed Yes37c102.74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No75c100.49$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1717037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f71…b80ebacked Yes13c100.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes23c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.55729.8%17 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed Yes40c98.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408657%49 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd388…add7backed Yes30c98.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes25c96.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8299017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xb099…88e9backed Yes29c96.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…b851backed Yes22c90.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc46…cbfabacked Yes20c89.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18100%0 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3240…5d25backed Yes35c88.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.571546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf00…0c1abacked No62c88.07$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.711258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes21c84.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.821936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdafd…807fbacked Yes30c84.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes37c83.83$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9346330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes23c83.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.26756.7%38 W · 29 L+11.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0933backed Yes21c80$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.894136.6%15 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No70c73$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.14035%14 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes30c72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.24933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86cf…a6cdbacked Yes37c71.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.09333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde02…1402backed Yes18c69.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.691040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25de…a86cbacked Yes33c60.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c6…4c2dbacked Yes38c59.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes20c58.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8814250%71 W · 71 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.