Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Somalia next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf0b7161e61ef3464827e233c06c83a93b459a939f2bb309842da3feb878ce96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,308,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,317,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,308,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 392 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb495…5924backed No | 0c | 341,073$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…fa30backed No | 0c | 120,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…c139backed No | 6c | 25,202$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.6 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…0b02backed No | 0c | 25,176$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a22…ef1fbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…e036backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64c…e075backed No | 0c | 12,790$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…9fbcbacked No | 0c | 12,624$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 53c | 12,182$6,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,677.36 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 11,765$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.87 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…89a7backed No | 1c | 11,698$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…6112backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…c39cbacked No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…d800backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…fc65backed No | 3c | 10,107$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45c…d320backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…d2f4backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…1e9bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…a428backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 39c | 9,185$3,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,627.91 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…642ebacked No | 5c | 8,995$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 53c | 7,969$4,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,745.09 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…1b58backed No | 1c | 7,621$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…d9eabacked No | 1c | 7,447$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 49c | 7,274$3,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,707.23 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…9b56backed No | 2c | 6,647$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d3…2349backed No | 1c | 6,507$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…a60abacked No | 0c | 6,222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…8df6backed No | 2c | 5,837$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…a901backed No | 1c | 5,352$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 5,149$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.16 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes | 37c | 4,285$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,690.23 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x472d…294cbacked No | 1c | 4,036$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd285…e466backed No | 1c | 3,970$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…bc4dbacked No | 4c | 3,702$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 36c | 3,520$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…30f2backed No | 5c | 3,464$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…96cebacked No | 1c | 3,400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 3,218$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 1c | 3,143$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed No | 1c | 2,982$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 35c | 2,725$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.8 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 43c | 2,708$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.59 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 54c | 2,616$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.54 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…12d9backed No | 2c | 2,616$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked No | 1c | 2,455$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 10c | 2,400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +242.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd872…9233backed No | 2c | 2,385$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…ddbbbacked No | 29c | 2,243$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…19a3backed No | 4c | 2,220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…4da8backed No | 1c | 2,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea7c…2a09backed No | 1c | 2,161$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bebcbacked No | 3c | 2,123$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f5…1e40backed No | 1c | 2,110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae2…05f2backed Yes | 50c | 2,100$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…6e1ebacked No | 3c | 2,100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38b5…c869backed No | 1c | 1,979$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…4a4dbacked No | 1c | 1,967$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked No | 71c | 1,923$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…d3edbacked No | 1c | 1,903$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,751$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.12 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3f…31c6backed No | 58c | 1,720$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…fe0dbacked No | 16c | 1,650$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,647$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 48c | 1,609$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.48 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b87…c249backed No | 1c | 1,522$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd58a…0e4abacked No | 1c | 1,494$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed No | 1c | 1,490$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 73c | 1,458$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc552…662cbacked No | 1c | 1,429$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed No | 1c | 1,423$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -8.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…2910backed No | 1c | 1,356$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…cb37backed No | 60c | 1,333$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 52c | 1,332$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.79 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…0244backed No | 1c | 1,331$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 2c | 1,281$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes | 37c | 1,242$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.64 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 58c | 1,232$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.89 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x185a…9c27backed No | 3c | 1,207$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480b…a574backed No | 66c | 1,201$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…eac1backed No | 1c | 1,154$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 49c | 1,133$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.34 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…0a60backed No | 1c | 1,117$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 46c | 1,113$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.83 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c1…0193backed No | 55c | 1,112$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 27cpaid | +106%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 42c | 1,107$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.54 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15b5…7eecbacked No | 1c | 1,099$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 39c | 1,098$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…bb53backed No | 12c | 1,097$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 1,092$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.93 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 69c | 1,091$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.43 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…e7b9backed No | 1c | 1,075$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…c698backed No | 1c | 1,017$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1649…132fbacked Yes | 58c | 1,017$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes | 58c | 1,015$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.72 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 37c | 1,002$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.36 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 5c | 1,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…7165backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Somalia next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba nexNo won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.