Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Yemen next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x784728edf47e3851c1a1a6ff20f27f1cf292340a10fc0e0f109e9587bdec9626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $319,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c61…d2b2backed Yes | 0c | 40,250$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 26,474$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.22 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d2…2892backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…c4c4backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…c139backed Yes | 1c | 12,838$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 12,574$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.28 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc8…fc00backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,989$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.24 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 8,544$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 3c | 5,607$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.37 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 3,364$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,331$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 20c | 3,300$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.94 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b7e6backed Yes | 32c | 3,104$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.7 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 2,894$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.34 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…3d81backed Yes | 1c | 2,616$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -8.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,538$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.92 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes | 12c | 2,041$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae2…05f2backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 2c | 1,999$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 22c | 1,698$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.93 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,661$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,603$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d3…1766backed Yes | 5c | 1,479$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,340$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ed…8779backed Yes | 1c | 1,241$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1178…d3fabacked Yes | 73c | 1,235$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 28c | 1,233$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.48 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 1,193$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…107fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,193$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes | 76c | 847.59$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed Yes | 5c | 796.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 780.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 20c | 767.32$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 759.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 752.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 4c | 726.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 7c | 719.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 29c | 695.13$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.69 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 70c | 632.54$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.62 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 624.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd1…870ebacked Yes | 3c | 610.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…b17fbacked Yes | 5c | 600.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 2c | 572.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…1930backed Yes | 2c | 568.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf443…bb17backed Yes | 5c | 529.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c87…3b59backed Yes | 68c | 514.57$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Yes | 9c | 500.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…68e9backed Yes | 6c | 491.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes | 57c | 465.12$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…e9d1backed Yes | 25c | 454.06$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e4…0acbbacked Yes | 23c | 439.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…ea96backed Yes | 9c | 384.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…370dbacked Yes | 26c | 379.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…81ccbacked Yes | 7c | 373.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 371$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 4c | 370$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 44c | 365.93$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.29 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 350.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf24…0dcabacked Yes | 6c | 333.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 6c | 332.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 28c | 319.42$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.34 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed Yes | 62c | 309.26$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.59 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 35c | 307.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87fc…ffd9backed Yes | 5c | 276.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0df…2c80backed Yes | 52c | 260.37$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…0df8backed Yes | 5c | 231.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…67b3backed Yes | 36c | 192.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 192.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 30c | 180$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 68c | 161$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3405…e1e2backed Yes | 19c | 153.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 32c | 147.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x178f…45b8backed Yes | 8c | 143.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 141.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 31c | 138.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.81 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed No | 74c | 134.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 22c | 134.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…44f4backed Yes | 22c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…a161backed Yes | 13c | 128.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…b5ccbacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 23c | 128.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x826a…cd11backed Yes | 20c | 124.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…fee0backed Yes | 34c | 124.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 120.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 25c | 114.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 22c | 102.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x472d…294cbacked Yes | 26c | 101.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…6bd6backed No | 28c | 101.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +10.3wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…7acdbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…d263backed Yes | 57c | 98.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…b662backed No | 24c | 87.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…f897backed Yes | 16c | 80.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…069abacked Yes | 37c | 78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Yemen next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba nexNo won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.