Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Cuba nex
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc747b5813c3c36749c69c2a69f5a28889217828a49ef641396c8677339ee09ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a8b…d275backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc8…fc00backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…1930backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…29c4backed Yes | 3c | 9,965$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.86 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…7952backed Yes | 0c | 4,443$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…b51dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,723$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,457$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 2,573$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1207…39f1backed Yes | 2c | 2,521$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,410$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…ccd0backed Yes | 2c | 2,121$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1673…53a5backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…8f57backed Yes | 8c | 1,958$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 1c | 1,916$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,898$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,893$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 1c | 1,869$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x223a…7664backed Yes | 2c | 1,847$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,769$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,570$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,533$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,386$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec51…c132backed Yes | 8c | 1,275$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,247$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…43d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,122$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed Yes | 1c | 1,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a3…66a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -80%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…e11fbacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…fa32backed Yes | 2c | 984.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 7c | 849.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…85f7backed Yes | 2c | 842.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…ec4dbacked Yes | 7c | 779.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ee…38e5backed Yes | 2c | 767.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Yes | 4c | 766.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes | 3c | 693.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…2813backed Yes | 3c | 673.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…89b4backed Yes | 3c | 620$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 603.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…e7b9backed Yes | 2c | 594.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 532.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629a…67c2backed Yes | 2c | 508.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…20b6backed Yes | 2c | 508.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…0bcebacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aeb…01a8backed Yes | 3c | 499.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 7c | 479.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 402.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 379.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a95…ce0ebacked Yes | 6c | 324.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 7c | 319.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc0…2de3backed Yes | 5c | 275.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…755fbacked Yes | 4c | 253.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2c…3d39backed Yes | 6c | 233.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ae…4325backed Yes | 7c | 180.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…3022backed Yes | 10c | 143.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Cuba nexthis page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.